New insights into Chinese Maritime Silk Road
It is a concept which could boost global seaborne trade by assisting economic progress in many countries. China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road has attracted great interest internationally, intensified by other possible impacts of the plan. During the past twelve months there has been progress, as well as setbacks, and the main features have become clearer.
Together with its land-route counterpart the Silk Road Economic Belt, the Maritime Silk Road forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (B&RI), formerly referred to as One Belt One Road. This grand project has huge economic and strategic implications for the numerous countries involved. Just over a year ago interest was amplified by a conference of nations and organisations, hosted in Beijing by the Chinese government to explain and discuss the B&RI and encourage involvement. Since then there have been many news items about various aspects.
Assisting evaluation of the continuing process, two new analyses were published recently. These look specifically at the Maritime Silk Road part of the B&RI and cast a fresh light on how it is evolving, its effects and implications regionally and globally:
China’s Maritime Silk Road, Strategic and Economic Implications for the Indo-Pacific Region
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC, March 2018, Nicholas Szechenyi (editor), Michael J Green, et al
Blue China: Navigating the Maritime Silk Road to Europe
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Policy Brief, London, April 2018,
Mathieu Duchatel and Alexandre Sheldon Duplaix
These analyses are offered by reputable think-tanks, featuring scholarly research. Although influenced by and reflecting to varying extents, respectively American and European viewpoints, valuable insights coupled with thought-provoking ideas and assessments are contained.
The principal rationale for the Belt & Road Initiative, as promoted by the Chinese government, is to improve connectivity between China and a broad band of Eurasian territory, mainly by upgrading and expanding transport and other infrastructure. Along the Maritime Silk Road, a route or routes extending from China through Southeast Asia, Oceania, the Indian Ocean, Middle East and East Africa into the Mediterranean Sea, enhancing port facilities is a particular focus. Previous studies have highlighted the need for greater investment in such infrastructure in many developing and emerging economies in this area.
Contrasting perceptions
Plans to strengthen connectivity are not the only aspect of the Maritime Silk Road attracting much attention. Political and strategic issues and implications are considerations for many countries involved or affected.
The CSIS analysis underlines the “growing questions about the economic viability and the geopolitical intentions behind China’s proposals” and asks whether port and other projects in the Indo-Pacific region are economic or military in nature. It concludes that MSR projects are neither purely military nor purely commercial and that China’s approach is “probably evolving”. A broadly international viewpoint is adopted in this evaluation; an overtly American perspective is not prominent in the report.
By contrast the ECFR study, as implied by its title, places a European perspective centrally. The tone is set at the outset when it is declared in the summary that “China’s Maritime Silk Road is about power and influence…” The study’s introduction section contends that “economics may be its main driver, but the Maritime Silk Road is also about naval power and international influence and forms part of (president) Xi Jinping’s broader national strategy”. This theme is pervasive throughout the report.
Perceptions of a European reluctance to endorse China’s project are emphasised in the ECFR study. According to the authors, the “romance of the Silk Road has won over few players in Western Europe”. Scepticism in Europe is explained as reflecting three influences: (a) an unconvincing argument by China about shared prosperity, (b) a prevailing sense that Europe will derive limited advantages from the MSR, and (c) divided European opinion about the entire Belt & Road Initiative. These influences have led to “passive scepticism”. The report does question whether this attitude is justifiable, but contends that the B&RI “is designed to help China tilt the global balance of power in its favour”.
Prominent infrastructure projects
Included in the CSIS report are detailed evaluations of three major port infrastructure projects sponsored by China along the Maritime Silk Road – Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), Hambantota (Sri Lanka) and Gwadar (Pakistan). Another major project on the same route – Chabahar (Iran), sponsored by India – is also examined because it is in close proximity to Gwadar and is often viewed as a manifestation of strategic competition between India and China.
Below are brief descriptions of the projects, derived from the CSIS study and from other sources.
At Kyaukpyu, a coastal town in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, Chinese companies have agreed to develop a deep-sea port and adjacent industrial area. Already this location is the terminus for twin pipelines to Kunming in China’s Yunnan Province. The gas pipeline, completed five years ago, carries gas from Myanmar’s offshore Shwe field, while the parallel oil pipeline which became operational last year carries imported crude oil to a new refinery in Kunming. The project enables China to reduce dependence on the sea route via the Straits of Malacca, seen as a chokepoint vulnerable to disruption. When new road and rail connections are finished, this route may assist development of China’s inland western provinces.
The port of Hambantota on Sri Lanka’s southern coast was a small fishing village until a few years ago when the previous national government, with Chinese financing, began transforming it into a deep-sea port. It is situated close to the long-established major port of Colombo, which has not reached capacity and has plans for major expansion, complicating Hambantota’s progress from an under-utilised facility at present. As a consequence of the need to reduce the country’s high indebtedness, in July 2017 a controlling equity share plus a 99-year operating lease was acquired by a Chinese port operator, China Merchants Port Holdings.
In Pakistan the port of Gwadar on the Makran coast west of Karachi has been developed in recent years as a gateway to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Projects within CPEC will be facilitated by road links through Pakistan to Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Province, and there are plans for rail and pipeline links. Gwadar is located near the junction of the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman close to international shipping routes. Its transformation from small fishing villages into a major port being extended in phases began over a decade ago. In 2013 it became effectively a Chinese port when a new operator, China Overseas Port Holdings, obtained the management contract, and a 40-year lease has been agreed.
A port which is relevant to, but not part of the MSR project is Chabahar in Iran. The relevance stems from its geographical position along the same stretch of coast and in close proximity to Gwadar, less than two hundred kilometres distant. Of particular significance is that India is assisting Iran to develop Chabahar, reflecting the Indian Government’s infrastructure investment strategy and intention of gaining access to Central Asia. The upgraded port is expected to be operational by the end of 2018, and India has committed to building a free trade and industrial zone and new rail connections.