Wolf of WallStreet schreef op 7 september 2022 13:24:
Laaste artikel van ABN Group Economics
Naar verwachting van ABN Group Econonics Team, zal ECB rente eind het jaar %1,5 zijn.
We expect the ECB to raise its policy rates by 75bp following its meeting later this week. This is larger than the 50bp rate hike that we previously expected.
The larger expected hike reflects:
1. The hawkish comments from the majority of Governing Council officials over the last few days
2. Headline inflation has continued to accelerate, while the drivers of price pressures have generally been more elevated than the ECB expected in June. For instance, the euro has weakened further
3. GDP in the first half of this year has come in higher than the central bank expected
4. The shift in market pricing and analyst forecasts means that a larger move would not be a shock (even though such a move is not fully priced)
We will re-assess our medium-term outlook for the ECB after the September meeting. However, our thinking right now is that we will see a total of 75bp of rate hikes after that. That could come in one further step of 75bp in October, or be spread out over October and December. We still expect an ECB pivot around the turn of the year, reflecting our judgment that the eurozone economy is heading for significant contraction.