McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.
While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%.
The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.
“McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”
And that’s not even the bad news for McSally.
The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule.
At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018 -- stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee.
McSally's declining support lies within the 4 percent margin of error in the May tracking poll, a blend of live and automated calls made between May 9 to May 11. But her Maricopa County numbers are a disaster.
In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County.
In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.
Just think about that for a moment. Kelly has gone from a five-point advantage in Maricopa County to an 18-point cruise.
Dit is een Senaat race in Arizona. Het lijkt er dus op dat beide Senaatszetels in Dem handen komen. Een stap dichter naar Senaatsmeerderheid.
En de staat zelf? Blauw.
En zonder Arizona wordt het voor trump moeilijk om te blijven zitten. (Az, Mi, Pa + de vaste Dem staten is genoeg voor Biden. Geen Florida nodig, of Wisconsin. Of North Caroliona. Hoewel ook die staten richting Biden leunen.)