Ik heb hier wel eens opgemerkt dat we hier (in Azie) pas aan het begin staan van een housing-bubble (over 10 jaar collapse).
Onderstaande poster verwacht het binnen 2 a 4 jaar hoogstens (voor de Filippinen):
An Open Letter to Philippine President Benigno Aquino III: Now is the time to prepare for a massive housing crisis in Asia
By Joe Salcedo on December 17, 2012 3:19 PM
Author's note: This is a personal piece that's been brewing in our hearts for a few years now.
When a housing market breaks down, as we have experienced first-hand, the biggest casualty will not be stock markets or tumbling currencies, it will be the family. It is they that suffer the most because few will see the crisis coming. Our hope is that this article will start a dialogue. We don't expect blind acceptance, rather, to start a conversation on what we feel is a very urgent issue. We'd like to thank Valen Alexis, an award winning writer and director in LA, for organizing our jumbled thoughts and ideas into a readable essay.
An Open Letter to Philippine President Benigno Aquino III: Now is the time to prepare for a massive housing crisis in Asia
By: Joe Salcedo & Ian Mariano
I was 12 years old living in Manila Philippines - Romarico Jr. tailing Romarico Sr. as he collected rent payments and called out work orders from fixing busted pipes or putting new travertine tiles. It was 1996. We had eight rental homes, and we were economic and housing bliss in my home country.
It would be the last.
Luckily, my father already had his ear to the ground, had predicted the Asian Market Crash that went into full effect in 1997.
Growing up Pops would always share his dreams for us: "I want all four of you to have a house before you get married, especially you two boys -- you'll be the head of your families."
Then the Asian housing crash happened.
I remember it like yesterday. The frantic calls to real estate agents, the tense tone in my father's voice as he made deals with selling our prized investments. When I asked him why he was selling "my home," he said it was needed because of "blah, blah, blah, Thailand." He had heard something about Thailand's housing market falling apart.
He was spot on.
Asia was in trouble. Thailand, where the first domino collapsed, devalued its currency in July 1997 (devalued baht make Thai goods more desirable internationally to help stimulate lagging economy).
Before the problems started, Thailand had experienced a long period of growth that created an over-heated housing market. The pressure came from two fronts: overproduction of houses and central bank's squeeze on lending. New housing units were built to satisfy the ever-growing demands caused by Thailand's hot economy, primarily fueled by liberalization of
capital inflow which lent to local housing developers financed by foreign loans.
As the crisis spread, most of Southeast Asia and Japan saw slumping currencies, devalued stock markets and other asset prices, and a precipitous rise in private debt. In November 1997, South Korea, one of fastest growing economies in the world, shocked the world and its citizens when it announced it was seeking assistance of the International Monetary Fund in meeting its foreign debts burden. In 1998 the Philippines growth dropped to virtually zero.
And few saw the crash coming, as Asian economies had been doing fine before the crisis, with impressive growth and solid fundamentals.
On the eve of the crisis, nearly all forecasts were predicting positive and high growth rates for these economies for the coming years of 1997 and 1998. Hardly anyone asks the hard questions when all is well. "You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."
Consumers and local businesses had become "over-optimistic, to over-invest, and to over-produce." The brunt of which was seen in the real estate industry. And then it all came to a screeching halt.
Barely fifteen years ago and I'm afraid we're starting to forget the lessons from this crisis. It looks like we're headed down that path again -- sooner than later, one that could equal the East Asian Financial Crisis
of 1997.
The Philippines is about to enter its fifth straight year of "good times" which started around 2008 fueled by an "unprecedented construction boom" currently transforming the skyline of the nation's capital, as well as many provincial cities. Consumer
spending, which remained a major growth driver, more than doubled in a single year from 2.4% to 7.1% recorded in 2011. Donald Trump has put his name to a $150-million, 56-story, curtain-glass-walled Trump Tower that broke ground this year -- 70% of the 220 residential units, which are worth up to $1.86 million each, have been sold according to Trump.
Before I proceed allow me to share to you why I am writing this letter. Yes I am here to sound the emergency alarm in hopes that the Philippine government can start preparing for this financial catastrophe ASAP. But I am not here to belittle the progress that's happening in the Philippines and most of Asia.
I fully support it and share your joy in this new found wealth and opportunities: The country's credit rating has been bumped up to just a step below investment grade by all three major international credit agencies, the Peso is the best performing currency in Asia and GDP is second only to China this year. This is a good thing for theFilipino people especially for its burgeoning middle class.
I also admire the intentions of Philippine Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima when he said that he is closely watching this economic boom to prevent another asset bubble from happening. But the attitude towards this new bubble is still "if"
there is a bubble. This letter is a plea to elevate "if" to "when" the bubble occurs.