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Alcatel-Lucent

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Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 10 april 2012 13:52

Amen..

(en begrijpend lezen is niet je sterkste punt blijkbaar, heb talloze keren over opwaarts gerichte manipulatie gesproken, is bij ALU nog niet aan de orde.. hoop dat we die fase, waarbij koersen door analisten in een uitloop vaak ver boven fair value worden gepusd ook nog eens gaan zien)

En Valueengine (kennelijk had je dat ook niet door) is geen analist maar een geautomatiseerd systeem voor het berekenen van fair value ...

[verwijderd] 10 april 2012 13:58

10:33:16 gekocht als enige tot nu vandaag Alcatel RBS Turbo Long 1.38
dus nu omhoog met die zooi hahaha.

[verwijderd] 10 april 2012 13:59

quote:
atitlan schreef op 10 april 2012 13:52:
Amen..
(en begrijpend lezen is niet je sterkste punt blijkbaar, heb talloze keren over opwaarts gerichte manipulatie gesproken, is bij ALU nog niet aan de orde.. hoop dat we die fase, waarbij koersen door analisten in een uitloop vaak ver boven fair value worden gepusd ook nog eens gaan zien)

Iemand die zo kritisch is als jij, zou toch op z'n minst grote vraagtekens moeten zetten bij een zeer twijfelachtige 'analyse'.

Dit is niet positief voor je geloofwaardigheid.

[verwijderd] 10 april 2012 14:08

quote:
atitlan schreef op 10 april 2012 13:52:
En Valueengine (kennelijk had je dat ook niet door) is geen analist maar een geautomatiseerd systeem voor het berekenen van fair value ...

Dat had je er natuurlijk gelijk bij kunnen vertellen...!!

Of je had het niet moeten plaatsen als het toch geen waarde heeft......

Christustepaard 10 april 2012 14:10

quote:
Christustepaard schreef op 4 april 2012 13:29:
Ik heb op 1.68 maar eens een portie ingeslagen.

Op 1.58 verdubbeld.

[verwijderd] 10 april 2012 15:10

ctp, hoop dat je timing beter was dan de mijne

Alle goede berichten ten spijt.. het aandeel wordt door enkele grote marktpartijen met de grootst mogelijke volhardendenheid alleen maar teruggetrapt/geshort.
Begin me zo langzamerhand af te vragen waar al die stukken vandaan komen.
De teller van verkochte stukken sinds 10/02 staat op 2,5 miljard stuks, bij een free float van ca 1,6 miljard en dat is alleen nog maar NY+PA.

4G Boom Having Positive Effects on Alcatel Lucent SA and InterDigital, Inc.
Marketwire -04/10/12

Five Star Equities Provides Stock Research on Alcatel Lucent SA and InterDigital, Inc.

The 4G LTE networks have been growing rapidly across the world providing significant opportunities for companies in the technology sector. "The fastest developing mobile system technology ever" is an entirely IP based network with significantly higher download speeds and higher signal quality. Five Star Equities examines the outlook for companies in the Technology Sector and provides equity research on Alcatel Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU - News) and InterDigital, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC - News).

New software from Alcatel-Lucent is to give businesses the ability to make it as easy for their employees to shift between different types of business communications services -- instant messaging, data sharing, voice calls and video collaboration -- without interrupting their conversations. With the fast-growing 'bring your own device' trend of employees using personal devices for work applications, Alcatel-Lucent's OpenTouch™ Conversation software will deliver all of these services to employees' personal devices, including smart phones and tablets.

finance.yahoo.com/news/4g-boom-having...

mjmj 11 april 2012 11:35

Ik heb nog eens naar de volumegrafiek gekeken.
Als ik door mijn oogharen kijk dat zijn de volumes het laatste jaar eigenlijk vrij hoog en zijn ze de laatste paar weken niet echt verschillend van de periode daarvoor. Als dit zo is dan kan je niet anders concluderen dat het gooi en smijtwerk al zeer lang aan de orde is. Dit zou kunnen betekenen dat de koers volledig in handen is van degenen die dit spel kunnen beheersen op basis van de aantallen die ze in bezit hebben / of geleend hebben.
Wat is jullie mening over de volumes in pakweg het laatste jaar?

Overigens heb ik ooit ergens gelezen dat iemand die aandelen uitleent dat meerdere keren mag doen. Ik heb dat niet bevestigd gekregen maar als dat zo is dan kunnen er meer aandelen verhandeld worden dan de freefloat. Weten jullie hier iets van?

g
m

[verwijderd] 11 april 2012 11:48

quote:
mjmj schreef op 11 april 2012 11:35:
Ik heb nog eens naar de volumegrafiek gekeken.
Als ik door mijn oogharen kijk dat zijn de volumes het laatste jaar eigenlijk vrij hoog en zijn ze de laatste paar weken niet echt verschillend van de periode daarvoor. Als dit zo is dan kan je niet anders concluderen dat het gooi en smijtwerk al zeer lang aan de orde is. Dit zou kunnen betekenen dat de koers volledig in handen is van degenen die dit spel kunnen beheersen op basis van de aantallen die ze in bezit hebben / of geleend hebben.
Wat is jullie mening over de volumes in pakweg het laatste jaar?

Overigens heb ik ooit ergens gelezen dat iemand die aandelen uitleent dat meerdere keren mag doen. Ik heb dat niet bevestigd gekregen maar als dat zo is dan kunnen er meer aandelen verhandeld worden dan de freefloat. Weten jullie hier iets van? gm

Voor zover ik weet zijn de bekende shortposities in ALU zeer klein (ca een dag omzet). Ik denk bovendien dat de meeste shortposities te maken hebben met hedging van b.v. opties of obligaties.

De grote omzetten van de laatste tijd zijn vooral te danken aan arbitrage en high-frequency trading (HFT), waarbij hetzelfde aandeel per dag vele malen van eigenaar kan verwisselen.
HFT kun je vooral herkennen aan de kleine, gelijke orders (b.v. 100 of 202 stuks) die in hoog tempo voorbij komen.

De laatste alinea is in ieder geval grote onzin.
Als dat waar zou zijn, dan kun je natuurlijk ook niet-geleende aandelen 2x verkopen!!

[verwijderd] 11 april 2012 16:16

You need a Long Term Vision for Alcatel-Lucent
By John Mylant - April 10, 2012 | Tickers: ALU |

John is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

Sentiment is pretty high for Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) but investors should not expect to see Apple like growth (continuous upward growth) in the near future. If you are investing in the stock, then you need to understand that highly expected returns for the company are years away and not something that will be here in the next 12 months.

When Alcatel-Lucent shared its vision in the first quarter of 2011, it was just that—a vision. This shift in thinking to a new technology “lightRadio” with new hardware for the 4G LTE networks that were up and coming was going to be a challenge to sell. The company first had to educate operators as to how the new hardware like the ‘cube’ would fit into its network.

There is no denying the incredible growth the wireless networks have seen over the last 15 months. As consumers buy devices like smartphones and tablets, consumer are expecting to be able to ‘stream’ things like movies, video calls, gaming platforms and more. This is becoming the norm and the LTE networks are growing giving Alcatel-Lucent ample opportunity to grow with it.

But this growth takes time. The company does not look good on paper when it comes to sales forecasts. For the first two quarters of this year, projections are down double digits. (March 2012: -13.40%) (June 2012: -12.30%) For the year (-6.70%) Projections for the next year’s growth are a dismal 3.8%. This is not what I am looking for in a company. Regression also could mean lower dividends in the long run. So analysts are not expecting the company to grow this year. And in 2013 the forecast says 3.8%. So if they are expected to regress by 6.8% this year and then grow by 3.8% in 2013, it seems they are still going to be lower than where they were in 2011.

Yet, when we look at it from a value perspective, it looks very good. If we look at the company’s four price ratios, we can see that it is doing much better than the industry as a whole.

On one hand, not much is expected out of the company in the next year or so when it comes to forecasting growth. Yet the stock looks like a nice value play. The benefits to the company will come in the future as the company continues to build alliances. It is helping Cross Wireless, doing business under the Sprocket Wireless brand. They are bringing superfast mobile broadband to parts of eastern and southeastern Oklahoma in the United States. This is just one example.

So the interest in investing in Alcatel-Lucent should not be based upon what they are producing, but the potential to what they can bring to the wireless industry as the new network architect on the block. They have a grand opportunity if they can execute the vision they shared a year ago.

beta.fool.com/johnmylant/2012/04/10/y...

torro 11 april 2012 19:56

zolmax.com/equities-research-analysts...

nobahamas 11 april 2012 22:30

BRIEF-RESEARCH ALERT-Raymond James starts Alcatel Lucent with strong buy

www.cnbc.com/id/47016886

sorry, is al gemeld

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 08:46

"sorry, is al gemeld"

Dan hier zijn verhaal erbij..

Intiating Coverage With a Strong Buy Rating and $4.50 Price Target

Simon Leopold is joining Raymond James Equity Research and we initiate coverage of Alcatel-Lucent with a Strong Buy rating.

Recommendation: We are establishing a Strong Buy rating on ALU shares with a $4.50 price target. Alcatel-Lucent, a diversified provider of network equipment, software, and services to network providers, maintains strong strategic relationships with its customers, offers advanced equipment at the leading edge of technology, and can deliver improving financial metrics. Hence, we consider the stock as mispriced and offering material appreciation potential.

Improving operating metrics. In an environment with little carrier capital expenditure growth, we conservatively assume Alcatel-Lucent delivers flat sales in 2012 near €15.6 billion, yet with a favorable mix shift and cost reduction, we believe it can improve its operating margin. We model an operating margin of 5.5% vs. 4.6% consensus and 3.9% in 2011. We believe Alcatel-Lucent generates cash in 2012 and moves to a net cash position from a net debt position thus diffusing solvency concerns.

New products and share trends. Recent achievements demonstrate innovation. Alcatel-Lucent leads in many areas: wireless LightRadio, Routing 400G chip set, 100G optical, and 29,000 patents. In edge routing, it ranks second between Cisco and Juniper. Alcatel-Lucent shipped 70% of the 100G ports in the optical market, a sector where it ranks second behind Huawei and 2x Ciena’s share. In LTE (long-term evolution) Alcatel-Lucent has won with the largest, most valuable, and the earliest projects to launch.

Misperceptions. Many focus on Alcatel-Lucent’s cash position, particularly its pension and OPEB (other post-employment benefits) obligations. In 4Q11, Alcatel-Lucent had obligations of $39.9 billion, but after accounting for the fair value of the plan assets the under-funded status stood at $2.4 billion. The pension is a long-term obligation, so we argue it’s nearly offset by the value of the NOLs (net operating losses), which could be worth €1.5-1.9 billion.

Risks. Alcatel-Lucent has a spotty track record when it comes to delivering on all metrics (sales, gross margin, operating margin) in a quarter. To achieve margin improvement, it needs to reduce costs and maintain pricing discipline. Although its customer base appears healthy, Sprint’s (which represents <5% of sales/profits) health has come into question.

Estimates: Our sales and earnings estimates are near consensus for 2012 with non-GAAP EPS of €0.16/$0.21 compared to consensus of €0.16/$0.21. In 2013 we forecast non-GAAP EPS of €0.25/$0.32 vs. consensus for €0.19/$0.25.

Valuation: We see fair value at $4.50 based on a 2012 EV/sales ratio of 0.5x, which reflects a discount to more profitable peers such as Ericsson at 0.8x. Historically, Alcatel and Lucent have traded near 1x EV/sales; however, with ongoing execution risk and modest earnings, a discount
currently makes sense to us.

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 08:50

Quarterly Preview
Alcatel-Lucent reports its March quarter results on April 26 before the market open. Expectations for Alcatel-Lucent's typically weak seasonal first quarter are low, and we forecast an 18% sequential drop in revenues to 3.49 billion/$4.52 billion, which lies above consensus for 3.35 billion/$4.38 billion (note: First Call collects estimates for the ADR and the Paris-traded shares from overlapping but different sets of analysts). Between the uncertainty about European spending and weak U.S. carrier cap ex, expectations seem low. ADTRAN's negative pre-announcement and Ciena's market commentary, combined with our view that AT&T released its 2012 budget late in the quarter, present risks. Top customer AT&T's overall weak spending likely pressures results for network equipment
suppliers, yet we believe Alcatel-Lucent's exposure in wireless, a priority item for AT&T, provides a sufficient offset. We assume operating expenses remain flat sequentially and gross margin drops due to lower volumes. We forecast a loss per share of (0.03)/$(0.04), which compares to consensus of (0.02)/$(0.03). With the all-cash sale of the Genesys call center business completed in the quarter, we expect cash and investments to rise to 5.31 billion from 4.47 billion in the previous quarter and net cash to turn positive reaching 694 million, up from a net debt position of ?146 million in the previous quarter.
The June quarter typically delivers favorable seasonal sequential sales growth of a mid-single-digit percent, and with a delayed release of carrier budgets, the easier comparison could yield a 7% rise. Wireless spending, particularly by North American carriers, provides a key catalyst. Top customers AT&T, Sprint, and Verizon rely on Alcatel-Lucent for 3G and 4G infrastructure, and the three could grow wireless capex 15% this year according to our estimates. We model June quarter sales of 3.74 billion/$4.85 billion, which compares to the Street's 3.69 billion/$4.97 billion with non-GAAP earnings per share of 0.03/$0.04 vs. the Street's 0.02/$0.03. With strength in LTE, 100G optical, and edge routers, we think Alcatel-Lucent can demonstrate improvement even with
fairly flat annual revenue growth in our model. The key metrics for many investors will be on the balance sheet, and we think the company can show an improving cash position, which will be important for the stock to work.

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 08:53

Longer-Term Outlook
Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Alcatel-Lucent continues to improve its operating margin, which we believe reaches 5.5% in 2012, up from 3.9% in 2011, driven by strength in its Data Networking business, restructuring, and favorable mix shifts. Our detailed analysis considers Alcatel-Lucent's reporting segments and sub-segments of the Carrier unit, and reveals that with conservative and reasonable assumptions that mix shifts, cost controls, and no revenue growth enable the company to deliver operating margins exceeding most expectations. Furthermore, we believe concerns regarding the balance sheet are overdone, and we think the company generates cash in 2012. We think this deeper analysis can help improve confidence in Alcatel-Lucent's ability to execute on its stated plans. We considered a number of valuation approaches and think a sum-of-parts valuation based on EV/sales is appropriate given the unique nature of Alcatel-Lucent's reporting segments. Our analysis suggests the stock could be worth over $4 per share.
Alcatel-Lucent's stock has been on a roller coaster ride since the 2006 merger of Alcatel and Lucent as positive investor sentiment driven by improved operating margins and breakthrough technological innovations in early 2011 has faded as the European crisis emerged and North American spending slowed. We think the following catalysts might reignite investor interest in the stock.
Alcatel-Lucent will host a technology symposium in May at the headquarters of its IP networking business. Alcatel-Lucent could extend its presence in Data Networking, its highest margin segment, by entering the core router market. The launch of its FP3 400G network processor, a specialized chip that enables its routers to handle significantly more traffic while consuming less power, increases our conviction.
Verizon's spending on its CDMA (code division multiple access)-based mobile network likely has a long tail and is offset by increased LTE spending, yet we expect Alcatel-Lucent's gross margin to remain under pressure.
Our analysis reaffirms our confidence that Alcatel-Lucent remains on a trajectory to deliver operating margin improvement even with sales growth in line with modest carrier capital spending growth.
Sentiment remains relatively negative with 10 buy ratings, 15 hold ratings, and 9 sell ratings for the Paris-traded shares.
We consider our financial model based on the segmentation and disclosures provided by Alcatel-Lucent coupled with our own estimates and third-party research. The level of disclosures has improved including a more detailed segmentation of the Carrier business, but further financial analysis is challenged when striving to assess the company's ability to achieve its operating margin targets; we expect that it will maintain its forecast for operating margin improvement in 2012. With the following analysis, we believe that our operating margin forecast for 5.5% in 2012 is achievable but not assured. Our analysis walks through sales, gross and operating margin by segment at a high level followed by more detailed discussions on each segment and sub-segment.

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 09:03

quote:
mjmj schreef op 11 april 2012 11:35:
Ik heb nog eens naar de volumegrafiek gekeken.
Als ik door mijn oogharen kijk dat zijn de volumes het laatste jaar eigenlijk vrij hoog en zijn ze de laatste paar weken niet echt verschillend van de periode daarvoor. Als dit zo is dan kan je niet anders concluderen dat het gooi en smijtwerk al zeer lang aan de orde is. Dit zou kunnen betekenen dat de koers volledig in handen is van degenen die dit spel kunnen beheersen op basis van de aantallen die ze in bezit hebben / of geleend hebben.
Wat is jullie mening over de volumes in pakweg het laatste jaar?

Ik deel je mening.

ALU presteert na veel zwakke jaren nu al 6 kwartalen achtereen duidelijk boven consensus.. en Q4 2010 was voor het eerst heel sterk.
Vanaf toen explodeerde de koers en de vanaf begin 2011 nieuwe ongelofelijke volumes zijn sindsdien niet meer weggegeweest. Daar kwam bij dat in het voorjaar van 2011 LightRadio werd aangekondigd.
Hoewel de resultaten in 2011 kwartaal voor kwartaal een bevestiging bleken van een turnaround, werden een aantal analisten niet navolgbaar steeds aggressiever tegen het bedrijf...

Bijlage:

torro 12 april 2012 10:06

247wallst.com/2012/04/11/record-gover...

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 11:14

Het inmiddels vaste ontmoedigende patroon.
Vanaf een vroege top (1,587) scherp omlaag gebeukt .. low op 1,515 gemaakt.
In twee uurtjes bijna 5% terug! Dit aandeel gedraagt zich meer dan abnormaal.

Bijlage:

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 13:03

Met de krach van de afgelopen week is de enorme gap die 10 februari ontstond volledig gesloten, op 9 feb immers een hoogste koers van 1,548.
Eigenlijk had ik dat niet voor mogelijk gehouden, maar dat terzijde.
Dinsdag volgde op het sluiten van de gap (low 1,517) een krachtig herstel en gisteren een wonderbaarlijk gemakkelijk herstel naar 1,60, daarna echter weer het snelle inleveren.
Vandaag wellicht een laatste keer de 1,51 aangestampt.

Wanneer we nu deze week de bodem hebben gezien was met nog precies twee weken te gaan voor de cijfers de timing van het gooi- en smijtwerk uitstekend te noemen.
Eigenlijk staan de signalen nu op groen... zou je althans denken.
TA (clip) is de afgelopen week intussen perfect stuk gemaakt en biedt aldus de ideale omstandigheden om bij een laag koersniveau lekker te kunnen accumuleren.
TA-jongens wachten alvorens (opnieuw) een instap te overwegen immers op veel hogere koersen.
Ik houd ze intussen gewoon stevig vast.

Bijlage:

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 13:40

Raymond James calling. Will you accept the profits?
There's big news in the telecom equipment industry this morning. On Wednesday, analysts at broker Raymond James announced a series of new ratings in the industry: F5 Networks (Nasdaq: FFIV ) , with a price-to-earnings ratio of 40, got tagged with a mere "market perform" rating. Yet the analyst graced similarly valued Finisar (Nasdaq: FNSR ) with an "outperform" and, in the biggest news of the day, anointed Alcatel-Lucent with its highest rating: "Strong buy."

When you consider that Alcatel's P/E currently sits at a lowly 5.6 -- substantially less than the valuations accorded to F5 and Finisar -- Raymond's enthusiasm for the stock is understandable. But is Alcatel really as cheap as it looks?

After all, despite its $1.4 billion in profits last year, the company continued burning cash in 2011 -- as it has done every year for the past five years. Last quarter, however, Alcatel showed it at least has a chance of doing things differently in 2012. Free cash flow for last year's fiscal fourth quarter came to a lofty $786 million. And while this is still not as good as what Alcatel is claiming on its income statement, it's a darned sight better than anything we've seen on the cash-production front in the past year and a 52% increase from the amount of cash Alcatel generated in the previous year's fourth quarter.

It's too early to call this a trend just yet, but it just may be a glimmer of light at the end of Alcatel's long, dark, money-eating tunnel. If and when Alcatel manages to repeat the feat in Q1 2012, I just may be inclined to follow Raymond James' lead and recommend Alcatel myself. For the time being, though, I remain a skeptic, and I have rated Alcatel an underperform on Motley Fool CAPS. How's that CAPScall working out for me? See for yourself.

www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/0...

[verwijderd] 12 april 2012 17:30

4G Boom Having Positive Effects on Alcatel Lucent SA and InterDigital, Inc.

"We forecast global LTE phone shipments to grow tenfold from 6.8 million units in 2011 to 67.0 million in 2012. Major countries driving LTE growth this year will include the United States, Japan and South Korea. Multiple operators, such as Verizon Wireless, NTT Docomo and SK Telecom, are aggressively expanding their LTE networks. Key vendors leading the push into LTE phones will include Apple, Samsung, HTC, LG, Nokia, Motorola, Pantech and Fujitsu," said Neil Shah, an analyst at Strategy Analytics.

Neil Mawston, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, added, "The mobile industry is entering a breakout year for 4G LTE technology. Multiple operators and multiple phone vendors will be launching dozens of LTE models across numerous countries worldwide. LTE has quickly become a high-growth, high-value market that no operator, service developer, device vendor or component maker can afford to ignore."

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