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OCI - 2021

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Neunelfer
0
quote:

Just lucky schreef op 2 oktober 2021 18:43:

[...]Toch niet ingestapt zonder uitgebreide TA?
Nee, ik heb echt niks met TA. Ik vind dat een soort moderne wichelroedeloperij ;-))
Ik kijk naar het bedrijf, de sector en of ze winst maken. Jajaja, boring!
Maar het is iedereen van harte gegund. Ik geloofde er ook wel in, maar deed dat met minder overtuiging.

In dec 1.250 en ben er blij mee, maar had natuurlijk veel meer kunnen zijn.........

Nu ik erover nadenk: 1.000 aandelen x ruim 5 euro winst. Damn!!!
marcobol
1
quote:

BultiesBrothers schreef op 2 oktober 2021 16:27:

Hoeveelheden bekend Tender India:
twitter.com/tridentferts/status/14438...

It’s that day again Indian urea tender! The news so far:

KOCH -65
Amber -130
Midgulf -200
Dreymoor -114
Transglobe -100
Continental -140
Fertiglobe- 45 fob
PIC - 45 fob
Medallion -100
Ameropa -314
Swiss Singapore -180
Samsung -516

*Total Quantity - 1.949 Million*
Dit was de verdeling 12 maanden geleden, een aantal partijen (waaronder oci) biedt fors minder aan. Ik neem aan omdat er betere prijzen te krijgen zijn:

Ameropa 1,017,000 7 cargoes for west coast, five east coast
Swiss Singapore 474,000 6 west coast and 4 east coast
Fertiglobe/UAE/Egypt 375,000 6 cargoes on FOB basis; Kandla, Mundra
Samsung 276,000 3 each west and east coast
Dreymoor 200,000 Gangavaram, Pipavav
Koch 200,000 Gangavaram, Vizag, Mundra, Pipavav
Midgulf 190,000 Gangavaram, Krishnapatnam, Hazira, Tuna
Amber 190,000 2 each east and west coast
Continental 150,000 East and west coast ports
Transglobe 150,000 Krishnapatnam, Gangavaram, Rozi
Gavilon 135,000 Karaikal, Mundra
Sun International 90,000 Mundra, Krishnapatnam
Agrifert Liven 45,000 Kandla, Mundra, Adani, Rozi
SABIC/Saudi Arabia 45,000 Mundra, Pipavav
GPIC/Bahrain 45,000 FOB offer
Helwan/Egypt 45,000 FOB offer

[verwijderd]
0
Dit beloofd nog wat voor de komende IPO!

COMMODITIES

News Wire

Company News

Investing
14m ago

Adnoc Drilling Surges in Strong Debut for Biggest Abu Dhabi IPO
Farah Elbahrawy, Bloomberg News

An employee checks his smartphone as he passes a display of drilling bits in the lobby of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday, Feb. 22, 2018. Adnoc is seeking to create worlds largest integrated refinery and petrochemical complex at Ruwais.
An employee checks his smartphone as he passes a display of drilling bits in the lobby of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday, Feb. 22, 2018. Adnoc is seeking to create worlds largest integrated refinery and petrochemical complex at Ruwais. , Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) --

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s drilling unit rose as much 25% on its trading debut, after raising 4.05 billion dirhams ($1.1 billion) in the emirate’s biggest ever listing.

Adnoc Drilling shares jumped to 2.88 dirhams on Sunday, trading above the 2.30 offer price, in the latest sign of high investor demand for new listings in the Middle East. The company had boosted the offer size in September and drew $34 billion in total orders.

Investors have been snapping up shares in a flurry of listings in the Middle East, where Abu Dhabi is catching up with regional leader Saudi Arabia. The emirate’s efforts to boost its local exchange seem to be paying off with a clutch of offerings set to raise billions of dollars. Adnoc is also planning to list its fertilizer joint venture as soon as October.

Abu Dhabi, which holds most of the oil in the United Arab Emirates, is using its energy assets to draw in global investors along with their funds and expertise as the nation puts cash into efforts to diversify the economy.

The latest listing comes as commodity prices soar, with oil trading at a three-year high. Adnoc Drilling is the largest national drilling firm in the Middle East by fleet size, with 96 owned rigs.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Ruval
0
quote:

jessebrown schreef op 3 oktober 2021 08:42:

Dit beloofd nog wat voor de komende IPO!

COMMODITIES

News Wire

Company News

Investing
14m ago

Adnoc Drilling Surges in Strong Debut for Biggest Abu Dhabi IPO
Farah Elbahrawy, Bloomberg News

An employee checks his smartphone as he passes a display of drilling bits in the lobby of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday, Feb. 22, 2018. Adnoc is seeking to create worlds largest integrated refinery and petrochemical complex at Ruwais.
An employee checks his smartphone as he passes a display of drilling bits in the lobby of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday, Feb. 22, 2018. Adnoc is seeking to create worlds largest integrated refinery and petrochemical complex at Ruwais. , Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) --

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s drilling unit rose as much 25% on its trading debut, after raising 4.05 billion dirhams ($1.1 billion) in the emirate’s biggest ever listing.

Adnoc Drilling shares jumped to 2.88 dirhams on Sunday, trading above the 2.30 offer price, in the latest sign of high investor demand for new listings in the Middle East. The company had boosted the offer size in September and drew $34 billion in total orders.

Investors have been snapping up shares in a flurry of listings in the Middle East, where Abu Dhabi is catching up with regional leader Saudi Arabia. The emirate’s efforts to boost its local exchange seem to be paying off with a clutch of offerings set to raise billions of dollars. Adnoc is also planning to list its fertilizer joint venture as soon as October.

Abu Dhabi, which holds most of the oil in the United Arab Emirates, is using its energy assets to draw in global investors along with their funds and expertise as the nation puts cash into efforts to diversify the economy.

The latest listing comes as commodity prices soar, with oil trading at a three-year high. Adnoc Drilling is the largest national drilling firm in the Middle East by fleet size, with 96 owned rigs.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Dit laat zien dat er grote belangstelling is voor IPO’s in deze regio. Zal ongetwijfeld leiden tot hogere prijs per aandeel Fertiglobe!
Kruimeldief
0
quote:

Ruval schreef op 3 oktober 2021 09:43:

[...]

Dit laat zien dat er grote belangstelling is voor IPO’s in deze regio. Zal ongetwijfeld leiden tot hogere prijs per aandeel Fertiglobe!
En dus kans op nog snellere schuldafbouw, initiatieven in waterstof/methanol-projecten c.q. joint-ventures, lagere rentevergoedingen vanwege een betere creditrating en niet onbelangrijk: dividend en een veel hogere koers op redelijke termijn, omdat grotere investeerders dan mogen kopen en vanwege de vergroeningsgolf wel haast mòeten kopen. Anders nog iets?
[verwijderd]
1
quote:

Ruval schreef op 3 oktober 2021 09:43:

[...]

Dit laat zien dat er grote belangstelling is voor IPO’s in deze regio. Zal ongetwijfeld leiden tot hogere prijs per aandeel Fertiglobe!
Adnoc en OCI zullen zeker voor de IPO kiezen uit de hoogste kant van de bandbrete na zo een geweldig debuut voor de drillingservice van Adnoc.

BUSINESS NEWS
OCTOBER 3, 20218:46 AMUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
ADNOC Drilling jumps over 30% in debut for Abu Dhabi's largest IPO
By Reuters Staff

2 MIN READ

FILE PHOTO: Electronic boards displaying stock information are seen as an investor walks past at the ADX Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange stock market May 16, 2012. REUTERS/Ben Job/File Photo
DUBAI (Reuters) -ADNOC Drilling shares jumped more than 30% as the unit of Abu Dhabi oil giant ADNOC started trading on Sunday after its $1.1 billion initial public offering (IPO), the largest ever on the Abu Dhabi stock market.

ADNOC Drilling, whose share offering attracted more than $34 billion in demand, is expected to be among the 10 largest companies on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, based on a market capitalisation at listing of about $10 billion.

Its shares surged over 30% to 3.05 dirhams in early trading.
BultiesBrothers
1
Financial Times
SIGN IN
EU energy
European gas market faces more strain after Western Sahara dispute flares
Algeria plans to shut down pipeline that passes through Morocco to Spain

© AFP/Getty Images

October 2, 2021 4:00 am by John Dizard
Sitting in a snug European home, one can sip organic tea in the evening and watch dystopian American politics play out on television.

Much more sad, of course, if the lights and television were to go off and the tea kettle stay cold. That is not a distant risk, thanks in part to Europe’s energy geopolitics. By now, everyone has heard about a squeeze on European gas supplies benefiting Russian group Gazprom and the Moscow’s influence.

Less discussed is how conflicts in north Africa are likely to reduce Spain’s winter gas supplies, while potentially adding to upward pressure on power prices for the rest of Europe.

On October 30, Algeria plans to shut a pipeline transporting Algerian gas to Morocco, Spain and Portugal. This is part of a long simmering feud between Algeria and Morocco that arguably began with the former’s independence from France in 1962.

Morocco is angry with Algeria for its support of the Polisario Front, which wants independence for Western Sahara. Morocco insists that it has sovereignty over the long-disputed territory. Relations deteriorated further this summer when Algeria accused Morocco of having a role in starting several serious forest fires on its territory.

The tensions have reached the European Court of Justice, which this week handed a legal victory to the Polisario Front, ruling that a broad economic treaty between the EU and Morocco could not be automatically extended to cover Western Sahara.

Spain is the European country most affected by the CJEU decision. Western Sahara is a former Spanish colony. Some Polisario members have Spanish passports. And, in recent decades, the Spanish fishing fleet has come to depend on Western Saharan waters (and Moroccan licenses) for up to a third of its catch.

European ties with Morocco extend far beyond fish. There are migration flows, European investments including auto manufacturing, sometimes-rocky security arrangements, tourism, and the supply of Moroccan vegetables to European tables.

France and Spain have special legal relationships with Morocco that extend beyond the scope of other EU treaties. Algeria also has many ties to Europe, but it stands a bit apart. Its colonial-era struggle for independence from France is part of its national identity. Its armed forces buy a lot of kit from Russia and China.

And Algeria sells a lot of gas to Italy, Spain and Portugal. The gas to Italy goes directly through an undersea pipeline. The gas to Spain and Portugal has been flowing through two other undersea pipelines. The first, built between 1996 and 1997, passes through Morocco, which uses some of the gas for its own generators. The second, commissioned in 2011, goes directly from Algeria to Spain.

This is where EU and Spanish foreign relations now get even more problematic, especially in a tight international gas market and with insufficient European energy storage ahead of winter.

On September 29, the day the CJEU decision on Western Sahara was announced, Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy supremo, issued a joint statement with his Moroccan colleague reaffirming a strategic partnership. They also vowed “to take the necessary measures to ensure the legal framework” for trade relations. This might antagonise Algeria and harden its resolve in its dispute with Morocco.

Tellingly, the next day the Spanish foreign minister and energy secretary landed in Algeria for meetings with their counterparts on, among other topics, the imminent 25 per cent expansion of the direct Algeria-Spain gas pipeline’s capacity. Even with the additional gas, Spain will struggle to import gas supplies this winter through its LNG terminals.

Spanish consumers are already enraged by high power prices. This has prompted Madrid to make a €3bn raid on profits of Spanish energy companies, like renewables star Iberdrola.

With the pipeline shut down, Morocco will have to find ways of doing entirely without Algerian gas, though its energy sector has already been planning for this contingency. It has coal power plants it can use, and could switch to other imported fossil fuel sources for its gas generators.

Europeans would be mistaken to think that Algeria and Morocco frame this dispute around economic and technical factors. There are profound sentiments about sovereignty, military balance, and culture at work here. It will not be easy for the EU to navigate such an environment to secure supplies.
BultiesBrothers
1
quote:

Ruval schreef op 3 oktober 2021 09:43:

[...]

Dit laat zien dat er grote belangstelling is voor IPO’s in deze regio. Zal ongetwijfeld leiden tot hogere prijs per aandeel Fertiglobe!
Klopt.. dat de IPO nog altijd nog onder heven kon zijn aan 'market conditions' (afgeblazen kon worden). Lijkt nu niet meer echt aan de orde. Floating Fertiglobe lijkt steeds realistischer te worden
BultiesBrothers
1
Grote baas Total waarschuwt consumenten en bedrijven: “Gascrisis zal nog de hele winter duren”

© AFP

De explosieve stijging van de gasprijs is geen tijdelijk fenomeen. Volgens de grote baas van de Franse energiereus TotalEnergies zullen we “nog de hele winter in een gascrisis zitten”. Met niet alleen peperdure energiefacturen, maar ook bedrijven die noodgedwongen tijdelijk de deuren moeten sluiten.
Appel72
1
Ik zie veel berichten op deze regenachtige zondag.
Als ik alles goed lees en begrijp gaat morgen voor OCI de zon schijnen.
Ik ben benieuwd hoe klein/groot de koers reactie is morgen.
Just lucky
0
quote:

Appel72 schreef op 3 oktober 2021 13:56:

Ik zie veel berichten op deze regenachtige zondag.
Als ik alles goed lees en begrijp gaat morgen voor OCI de zon schijnen.
Ik ben benieuwd hoe klein/groot de koers reactie is morgen.
Komende vrijdag sluiten boven 28,?
BultiesBrothers
0
quote:

Just lucky schreef op 3 oktober 2021 19:52:

[...]Komende vrijdag sluiten boven 28,?
Dat zou fantastisch zijn. Het zou het perfecte uitgangspunt zijn om met de IPO de 30 te passeren en met q3 cijfers de 35 aan te tikken ;p. Of het hoogste koersdoel ooit, in maart 2014: 38.58 euro
Just lucky
0
Ik verwacht nu de sector "hot" is, en na de IPO en uitstekende Q3 met super outlook voor Q4 (want is al binnen met orders), eind oktober dus, boven de 30 te staan.
Ruval
0
quote:

Just lucky schreef op 3 oktober 2021 21:25:

Ik verwacht nu de sector "hot" is, en na de IPO en uitstekende Q3 met super outlook voor Q4 (want is al binnen met orders), eind oktober dus, boven de 30 te staan.
Ja dat verwacht ik ook. Ik denk overigens dat de Q3 kunnen zorgen voor nóg hogere koersniveaus. Als uit de cijfers blijkt dat gas impact beperkt is (hedges en hoge afzetvolumes), dan kan het echt leuk worden zowel voor Q3 als Q4. Denk toch dat de markt dit nog wat afwachtend benaderd (eerst zien dan geloven)….
BultiesBrothers
0
Ik ben benieuwd of op korte termijn er nog nieuwe koersdoelen gegeven gaan worden of dat dat pas plaatsvindt na de ipo en cijfers.
De verwachte winst van CF industries ligt voor 2021 op zo'n 893 miljoen dollar, ofwel (gedeeld door 215 miljoen aandelen) is 4.19 dollar per aandeel. Op dit moment is dat een k/w van 14,5..
simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nys...

Stel dit betrekken we op OCI, en OCI heeft in H1 2021 al 1.16 dollar per aandeel verdient en zou hetzelfde over H2 2021 verdienen (onzin, het gaat veel meer zijn, maak oke) dan komen we over 2021 op 2.32 x 14,5 = 33.6 dollar = 28.5 euro per aandeel. In Q2 2021 hebben ze 70 dollarcent verdiend per aandeel. Als je dit doortrekt ook voor in Q3 en Q4 dan zouden we uitkomen op 2.56 dollar per aandeel, wat een koers van zo'n 32 euro rechtvaardigd. Dus 32 euro moet op z'n minst realistisch zijn. Maar ik laat me graag verassen door Q3 cijfers. En stel de benchmark prijzen voor alle producten zijn zo'n gemiddeld 30% gestegen in Q3, dan zouden ze 3 dollar per aandeel verdienen over 2021, wat weer met een KW van 14.5 op zo'n 37 euro/per aandeel moet komen.

Heel veel "voorstellen" maar oke. Het komt erop neer dan 25.74 nogsteeds erg goedkoop is voor dit aandeel. Maar blijkbaar merken nog weinig partijen dit op.
Ruval
0
Na de Q2 cijfers hebben de meeste analisten hun koersdoel verhoogd tot gemiddeld € 28, oftewel een koers 30% hoger dan toenmalige beurskoers.

Ik verwacht dat veel analisten dit keer ook pas weer na IPO of Q3 cijfers hun koersdoelen verhogen.
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Vertraagd 17 mrt 2025 12:59
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