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OCI - 2021

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BultiesBrothers
0
www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crop...

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Potash Price Jumps 10%, Urea Up 5% as Fertilizer Prices Keep Climbing
9/29/2021 | 9:54 AM CDT
Russ Quinn
By , DTN Staff Reporter
Connect with Russ:
Retail urea prices are 5% more expensive than last month with an average price of $585/ton. It's now 62% more expensive than last year. (DTN chart)
OMAHA (DTN) --- Two fertilizers saw significant price increases in the third week of September 2021, according to retail prices tracked by DTN.

A number of other fertilizer prices moved higher too, although they didn't meet the 5% threshold, which DTN considers significant.

Potash was 10% higher compared to last month. The fertilizer had an average price of $625/ton.

Urea was 5% more expensive than the prior year. The nitrogen fertilizer had average price of $585/ton.

The average retail price for MAP was 4% more expensive than last month at $786/ton.

At 3% higher, anhydrous was $772/ton, UAN28 $383/ton, UAN32 $436/ton.

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DAP prices increased 2% to an average price of $709/ton, while 10-34-0 was flat at $633/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.64/lb.N, anhydrous $0.47/lb.N, UAN28 $0.68/lb.N and UAN32 $0.68/lb.N.

Higher natural gas prices in Europe have altered the profitability of the fertilizer business. Dow Jones reported last week CF Industries said it would evaluate whether an impairment charge with respect to its business in the United Kingdom (U.K.) may be required. An impairment charge reflects when an asset's value can no longer be justified by reference to future cash flows.

The fertilizer giant announced on Sept. 15 it was halting operations at both its Billingham and Ince, U.K., manufacturing complexes due to high natural gas prices. A CF Industries press release from Sept. 21 announced the company restarted the ammonia plant at its Billingham complex.

Dow Jones reported CF reached an interim agreement with the U.K. government to cover the costs to restart the ammonia plant and produce carbon dioxide for customers in the UK. Operations remain shut down at the Ince manufacturing complex.

CF reported in June its investment in the U.K. business was about $850 million and the U.K. operations accounted for about 2% of its consolidated gross margin for the year ended Dec. 31.

Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly.

10-34-0 is now 39% more expensive, urea is 62% higher, DAP is 63% more expensive, UAN32 is 72% higher, MAP is 74% more expensive, UAN28 is 78% higher, anhydrous 82% is more expensive and potash is 85% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: .

Two major fertilizer producers announced shutdowns at European fertilizer manufacturing facilities in recent weeks due to high natural gas prices. You can read it here: .

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Sep 21-25 2020 434 453 338 361
Oct 19-23 2020 446 476 332 359
Nov 16-20 2020 455 488 336 358
Dec 14-18 2020 466 522 360 361
Jan 11-15 2021 486 551 373 373
Feb 8-12 2021 588 642 398 453
Mar 8-12 2021 615 690 423 483
Apr 5-9 2021 618 699 431 504
May 3-7 2021 634 705 436 514
May 31-Jun 4 2021 652 712 443 524
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021 677 721 476 542
Jul 26-30 2021 695 753 549 554
Aug 23-27 2021 697 756 569 557
Sep 20-24 2021 709 786 625 585
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Sep 21-25 2020 457 425 215 253
Oct 19-23 2020 456 424 209 249
Nov 16-20 2020 455 422 207 249
Dec 14-18 2020 463 450 210 253
Jan 11-15 2021 469 474 210 247
Feb 8-12 2021 512 524 243 285
Mar 8-12 2021 581 625 306 344
Apr 5-9 2021 605 692 341 378
May 3-7 2021 618 712 358 398
May 31-Jun 4 2021 619 719 363 412
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021 625 730 366 421
Jul 26-30 2021 631 737 365 419
Aug 23-27 2021 632 748 370 420
Sep 20-24 2021 633 772 383 436
[verwijderd]
0
Dit stuk uit BB van hierboven is toch een ernstige zaak voor CF,de verwachting dat hun fabrieken in de UK
mogelijk (langdurige hoge gasprijzen)niet meer de cashflow gaan opbrengen die men verwachte en een afboeking moeten gaan doen.

Higher natural gas prices in Europe have altered the profitability of the fertilizer business. Dow Jones reported last week CF Industries said it would evaluate whether an impairment charge with respect to its business in the United Kingdom (U.K.) may be required. An impairment charge reflects when an asset's value can no longer be justified by reference to future cash flows.
[verwijderd]
0
Dit geeft ook gelijk aan hoe fragiel de industrie is,de afzetprijzen van fertilizers waar de industrie al jaren op wachte (niet gezien sinds 10jr)brengt zeker geen rekord winsten door de hoge gasprijzen,vandaar de
aarzeling in de beurskoersen van de sector.
BultiesBrothers
0
We mogen denk ik blij zijn dat OCI voornamelijk in de VS en Midden Oosten zit. De winter komt eraan en ik zie niet zo 123 redenen waarom de gasprijs flink moet gaan dalen. Vraag stijgt, Rusland zet het in al geopolitiek spel, groningen wordt minder gebruikt, andere landen zetten in op gas als transitie brandstof.
We mogen hopen dat de winter zacht is. Heb begin dit jaar al mooi kunnen schaatsen dus ik kan wel een jaartje zonder ;p.

BioMCN ligt sowieso plat. Wat er bij OCI nitrogen nog geproduceerd wordt weet ik niet. Melamine zal wel doorgaan aangezien dit gemaakt wordt adh ammonia/urea als grondstof. Wellicht dat het ureum geproduceerd wordt in het midden oosten en melamine gemaakt wordt in Geleen. Geen idee of de andere productielijnen zoals CAN en UAN stil staan. denk het wel

BultiesBrothers
0
BASF becomes latest to curtail fertiliser production
By Rob Cockerill28 September 2021
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Chemicals giant BASF has become the latest to curtail certain fertilisers production capacity, due to the ‘extremely challenging’ economics at the hands of high natural gas prices.

The company has curtailed ammonia production at both its Antwerp and Ludwigshafen plants in Belgium and Germany.

“Due to the recent rise on natural gas prices in Europe, the economics for operating an ammonia plant in the region has become extremely challenging,” the company said in a statement. “As a result, BASF has curtailed its ammonia production at its production sites in Antwerp and Ludwigshafen.”

“BASF will continuously monitor the gas price development and adjust its ammonia production accordingly.”

The announcement is the latest in a long line of fertiliser plant closures and capacity reductions as the sector struggles with negative margins as a result of soaring natural gas pricing.

Of the plant closures to date, we know that:

Lithuania’s Achema last month (August) cancelled plans to restart its ammonia facility at the end of August
High production costs led to a partial closure of ammonia production at OCI’s Geleen plant in the Netherlands
CF Industries had closed its two plants in the UK in Ince and Billingham (with the latter set to resume operations soon as a result of UK Government support)
Yara International announced that it was curtailing around 40% of its European ammonia production capacity
Fertiberia management reportedly decided to stop production at its Palos de la Frontera site (Spain) from 1st October. Its Puertollano factory remains in a scheduled shutdown for ongoing investments
Production curtailments were expected to be announced in Ukraine; at least one plant closure in Ukraine was subsequently confirmed, with OPZ taking the decision on 18th September to shut one ammonia line and two urea lines.
European fertiliser producer Borealis AG announced in the last week that it too is now reducing its output and will continue to analyse the situation across its sites.
In almost all of these instances, either an end-of-year timeline or no estimate at all has been given for the resumption of these plants.

All of which is having a knock-on effect on the carbon dioxide (CO2) business in the region, with ammonia production a significant feedstock for the manufacture of CO2.

Read more: CO2 crisis averted…for now?

Sustained high natural gas prices are the unknown element in this crisis. At the time of writing, there are still warnings from various analysts and commentators that such elevated prices could remain in play for some time to come.

Europe is in the midst of an extreme squeeze on energy supplies, as a combination of depleted (natural) gas reserves and even low levels of wind – and a lower contribution of renewable wind power as a result – place pressure on the grid.

The race is on to restore gas reserves ahead of the colder, harsher winter months, and there have even been reports of a clamour for LNG shipments globally as the Asia region experienced some unseasonably colder periods. Against this backdrop, gas and power prices have been soaring on a daily basis and making for major headlines on the business news wires.

Some estimates suggest prices had risen as much as 250% since January, and 70% in the month of August alone.

Partial disclosure bij OCI. Dus dat is niet helemaal ;)
[verwijderd]
1
Markets
Grains Rebound With Fertilizer Price Surge Threatening Supply
By Kim Chipman
29 september 2021 19:13 CEST
Farmers may switch out wheat to less fertilizer-intensive crop
Crop futures edge up ahead of U.S. stocks report due Thursday
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CL1
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74.84USD/bbl.-0.45-0.60%
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2.21USD/gal.+0.00+0.00%
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Corn and wheat rebounded in Chicago as ripple effects from soaring fertilizer prices threatens to squeeze already tight grain supplies.

Higher crop-nutrient costs worldwide -- spurred by energy crises in Europe and China -- could cause farmers to switch from wheat to other less fertilizer-intensive plants, adding pressure on already tight stockpiles, Alex Sanfeliu, head of Cargill Inc.’s World Trading Group, told Bloomberg.

An even “bigger conversation” is the potential for farmers to shift from nitrogen-heavy corn to soybeans in next year’s U.S. growing season, Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer of the Kansas Wheat Commission, said an email.

Corn for December delivery rose 1.3% to $5.3925 a bushel as of 11:11 a.m. in Chicago, rebounding from a decline Tuesday. December benchmark soft winter wheat futures are on track to break a two-day losing streak, rising 1.3% to $7.14 a bushel.

In the nearer term, U.S. traders are poised to scrutinize a U.S. government report on quarterly grain inventories due midday Thursday. For corn, the expectation is for lower stocks than earlier forecast, while soybeans are likely to be little changed and wheat stockpiles are seen being slashed following severe drought in the northern Plains, according to Jacqueline Holland of Farm Futures.

Surging fertilizer prices could pressure supplies

Soybeans, soy oil and meal all edged up less than 1% after European rapeseed futures charged to a fresh record. The gain comes as global oilseed shortfalls combine with surging demand from reopening economies.
eduardo3105
1
En het stopt niet

UREA (GRANULAR) FOB US GULF FUTURES - SETTLEMENTS
SEP 21 - - - - UNCH 518.00 0 249
OCT 21 - - - - +17.00 637.50 30 390
NOV 21 - - - - +16.00 645.00 30 525
DEC 21 - - - - +22.50 652.50 60 470
JAN 22 - - - - +11.50 669.00 135 215
FEB 22 - - - - +12.50 670.00 120 120
MAR 22 - - - - +17.50 672.50 105 135
APR 22 - - - - +15.00 670.00 0 120
MAY 22 - - - - +7.50 657.50 0 45
BultiesBrothers
0
Ook dikke stijgingen voor q1 2022. Men verwacht dat men nog niet snel van deze hoge prijzen af zijn. Ook dus volgend jaar niet
eduardo3105
0
En de hobbel is genomen

25.4998 14,764 09:19:56

kunnen we nu door of wordt de koers met kleine aantallen weer terug gezet.
Ruval
0
quote:

Appel72 schreef op 30 september 2021 10:42:

Op naar de 26 Euro?
Nee, op naar de 30

Ik ga ervan uit dat er volgende week toch wel een aankondiging komt over de IPO. Als deze nog in oktober moet gaan plaatsvinden, wordt het anders wel erg kort dag….
Just lucky
0
Grappig he, dit zei Peter Schutte van IEX op 16 juni: "Met een forward k/w van 15 blijft de waardering nog redelijk bescheiden gezien de gunstige vooruitzichten en het feit dat OCI als meest efficiënte speler in de markt gezien kan worden." Dat ging om de resultaten van 2022. Als je dus met de resultaten van dit jaar rekent, ik verwacht ca. 3$ per aandeel, dan is 45$ (zeg 35euro), bescheiden gewaardeerd.
Kruimeldief
0
quote:

Just lucky schreef op 30 september 2021 11:29:

Grappig he, dit zei Peter Schutte van IEX op 16 juni: "Met een forward k/w van 15 blijft de waardering nog redelijk bescheiden gezien de gunstige vooruitzichten en het feit dat OCI als meest efficiënte speler in de markt gezien kan worden." Dat ging om de resultaten van 2022. Als je dus met de resultaten van dit jaar rekent, ik verwacht ca. 3$ per aandeel, dan is 45$ (zeg 35euro), bescheiden gewaardeerd.
Laat het maar alvast in oktober gebeuren, na de te verwachten aankondiging, zoals Ruval bijvoorbeeld zegt. Oktober heeft de naam een slechte maand te zijn voor wat betreft beleggingen, maar dat schijnt historisch toch september vaker te zijn. Die loopt vandaag af, net als weer een mega-kwartaal voor ons die-hards. Zojuist toch nog maar weer iets bijgekocht; kon het niet laten. De echte knal moet nog komen en we hebben toch ooit €29 op de borden zien staan.
BultiesBrothers
0
Sep 29, 2021 09:38 PMBUSINESS
China’s Top Two Fertilizer Firms Fined for Price Gouging
By Flynn Murphy

What’s new: Two of China’s largest fertilizer firms have been fined a total of 4.2 million yuan ($650,000) for price gouging on sales of potash, an essential source of nutrients for crops.

The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) fined Sinofert Holdings Ltd. 2.6 million yuan, and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co. Ltd. (000792.SZ +5.80%) 1.6 million yuan.

The regulator said both firms had substantially raised prices on potash products despite little change in production costs, violating China’s Price Law.

The context: In recent months, Chinese regulators have scrambled to stabilize skyrocketing prices of chemical fertilizers that deliver three essential nutrients — nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Potash is rich in potassium.

Analysts say that has been complicated by the fact Chinese fertilizers can fetch higher prices on foreign markets.

Domestic prices of potassium chloride were up more than 60% in the first half of the year.

On Sept. 24, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) called for a full court press to guarantee fertilizer supplies, issuing detailed orders to regulators like the SAMR, as well as government departments and producers.

China’s top economic planner warned against fertilizer hoarding and price manipulation, calling for potash reserves to be released onto the market to ease prices, and the use of organic fertilizers where possible.

It also urged power companies in provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shandong, and Yunnan to give priority to fertilizer producers. It is unclear how rolling power outages across the country may impact future supply.

Salt Lake is China’s largest potash fertilizer producer, with an annual potassium chloride production capacity of 5 million tons or about two-thirds of domestic capacity. Sinofert is China’s main fertilizer importer, selling 2.1 million tons of potassium chloride last year. China needs to import about 55% of its potash to meet demand.

Salt Lake said it had paid its fine on Sept. 24, while Sinofert said it had paid on Sept. 27.

Quick Takes are condensed versions of China-related stories for fast news you can use. To read the full story in Chinese, click here.

Contact reporter Flynn Murphy (flynnmurphy@caixin.com) and editor Michael Bellart (michaelbellart@caixin.com)
eduardo3105
0
quote:

BultiesBrothers schreef op 30 september 2021 13:38:

Op naar de oude top van september 2018: 29,50 euro.
eerste weerstand 26,66 en daarna 29,60
Ruval
0
Wederom een prima dag. We moeten bijna oppassen dat we al niet meer tevreden zijn met koersstijging van een procent, het kan verkeren:-)
Just lucky
0
quote:

Ruval schreef op 30 september 2021 18:34:

Wederom een prima dag. We moeten bijna oppassen dat we al niet meer tevreden zijn met koersstijging van een procent, het kan verkeren:-)
De beurzen beginnen wel te kraken....
BultiesBrothers
0
Zolang geld zijn rendement zoekt en er nog veel ondergewaardeerde aandelen zijn, zoals oci, gaat het puur om in welke aandelen je zit. De asmls dn asmies zijn wel heel snel gegaan en trekken helaas de aex in het rood vanwege hun weging in de index . En fundamenteel staat oci er gewoon goed voor met lage kw dus niet overgewaardeerd
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