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BAYER AG

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Anton78 16 maart 2021 08:28

Koersdoel verhoging van 61 naar 64.

NORDLB belässt BAYER AG auf 'Kaufen'

HANNOVER (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Die NordLB hat das Kursziel für Bayer anlässlich des mittelfristigen Ausblicks von 61 auf 64 Euro angehoben und die Einstufung auf "Kaufen" belassen. Angesichts des laufenden Transformationsprozesses, der Aufstellung der drei Sparten und des eingeleiteten Effizienzprogramms sei es realistisch, dass die Ziele bis 2024 auch erreicht würden, schrieb Analyst Thorsten Strauß in einer am Montag vorliegenden Studie. Für die Aktie des Pharma- und Agrarchemiekonzerns wäre es zudem wünschenswert, wenn der leidige Glyphosat-Klagenkomplex endlich zu den Akten gelegt werden könnte./edh/ajx

Veröffentlichung der Original-Studie: 15.03.2021 / 09:26 / MEZ Erstmalige Weitergabe der Original-Studie: 15.03.2021 / 09:38 / MEZ

Anton78 16 maart 2021 14:27

Koersverloop is werkelijk slaap verwekkend, Bayer staat compleet geparkeerd. Iedere keer als het lijkt of we omhoog mogen worden we weer langzaam terug gezet.

GANGISTERM 16 maart 2021 14:32

het stomme is dat ze best leuke dingen doen! ik verwacht eigenlijk na de definitieve berichtgeving van de roundup lawsuits dat er dan weer wat gespeculeerd kan gaan worden.

Anton78 16 maart 2021 14:47

Tja het mag allemaal niet baten.... DAX doet het best aardig vandaag, maar Bayer is zo dood als een pier.

Anton78 17 maart 2021 18:16

Zzzzzzz...... ghaaappp... zzzzzzz..... maak me even wakker als de koers beweegt....

Anton78 18 maart 2021 09:44

Zowaar wat beweging, helaas is Bayer in deze dagen niet echt goed in het vasthouden van enige winst of verlies naar het einde van de dag toe. We zullen wel weer rond de 53 eindigen vandaag.

Anton78 18 maart 2021 13:00

Nou we hebben bijna de 54 aangetikt, maar zoals verwacht zijn we weer hard onderweg terug naar de 53.

Anton78 18 maart 2021 16:50

bijzonder dagje, Bayer heeft wederom een draai gemaakt en lijkt erop dat we eindelijk weer eens stap vooruit mogen zetten. Ondertussen ben ik hier schijnbaar nog de enige die in Bayer zit ;-) niet geheel onbegrijpelijk, die laatste earnings call zit ook nog ergens in mijn achterhoofd. Maar goed blijf voorlopig nog maar even hangen. Zinnig nieuws is er op dit moment niet.

stockholder 18 maart 2021 18:33

quote:
Anton78 schreef op 18 maart 2021 16:50:
Ondertussen ben ik hier schijnbaar nog de enige die in Bayer zit ;-)

Nee hoor. Ik heb de stukken nog steeds. Alhoewel ik stiekem overweeg even te day traden.
Maar ja, dan zal je zien dat ze doorstomen. Moet ik ze weer duur terug kopen.
Overkomt me vaker. Nee ik houd ze vast en handel niet.
Prima aandeel welke het op termijn goed gaat doen.
Er is weinig nieuws te melden. Vandaar de stilte natuurlijk.

Anton78 18 maart 2021 18:46

Ken het gevoel, ook mijn vingers jeuken na een aantal dagen vlak op de 53 te koersen... maar heb mezelf nog in de hand.

GANGISTERM 19 maart 2021 06:10

Hier ook nog vast :) laat ze ook niet los!!!!

Anton78 19 maart 2021 10:39

Nice, heel goed. Bij deze weer wat nieuws om te inspireren. Deutsche bank heeft vandaag het koersdoel verhoogd van 63 naar 66 euro.

DEUTSCHE BANK belässt BAYER AG auf 'Buy'

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Die Deutsche Bank hat das Kursziel für Bayer nach einer Investorenveranstaltung von 63 auf 66 Euro angehoben und die Einstufung auf "Buy" belassen. Die neuen Ziele des Pharma- und Agrarchemiekonzerns hätten in puncto Wachstum und Profitabilität die Erwartungen überboten, schrieb Analyst Falko Friedrichs in einer am Freitag vorliegenden Studie. Er erhöhe folglich seine Schätzungen, was von steigenden Konsensprognosen begleitet werden dürfte./bek/gl

Veröffentlichung der Original-Studie: 19.03.2021 / Uhrzeit in Studie nicht angegeben / GMT Erstmalige Weitergabe der Original-Studie: 19.03.2021 / 07:04 / GMT

Hinweis: Informationen zur Offenlegungspflicht bei Interessenkonflikten im Sinne von § 85 Abs. 1 WpHG, Art. 20 VO (EU) 596/2014 für das genannte Analysten-Haus finden Sie unter web.dpa-afx.de/offenlegungspflicht/of...

www.beursgorilla.nl/Aandeel-Koers/150...

Anton78 19 maart 2021 10:42

Bayer ligt wel weer aardig vandaag, misschien ook geholpen door boven vermelde koersdoel verhoging.

Anton78 19 maart 2021 23:42

Heftige eindveiling vandaag, 30 cent eraf. Niet alleen daar maar ook bij de nodige NL aandelen een stevige dump in de eindveiling.

Anton78 22 maart 2021 12:01

Bayer: Enough With The Bad News

Mar. 19, 2021 9:40 AM ETBayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYRY), BAYZF14

Summary

Bayer reported solid results for fiscal 2020 with revenue and core EPS being more or less stable compared to fiscal 2019.

A few weeks ago, Bayer also settled the glyphosate litigations.

Over the next few years, Bayer will return on the path of growth and several megatrends are huge tailwinds.

The stock remains deeply undervalued at this point.

Bayer AG To Produce CureVac COVID-19 Vaccine

Considering that major indices in Germany, the United States and many other countries around the world are sprinting from all-time high to all-time high, Bayer (OTCPK:BAYZF) is still one of the worst stocks you could own in the last few years. But in February 2021, Bayer not only reported solid full-year results, but it also announced that a settlement regarding the glyphosate litigations has been reached. And considering these important headlines, it is time to look at Bayer once again.

Solid Results

When considering that 2020 was a difficult year for many companies around the world, Bayer reported solid results and its performance was robust. This is also underlining that Bayer is a rather recession-proof company. For the full year, Bayer reported €41.4 billion in sales, which is a decline of 4.9% compared to fiscal 2019. However, these declines were mostly due to factors outside of its control. When adjusted for exchange rates as well as the portfolio, Bayer could report 0.6% growth for sales. And while the top line was more or less stable, the bottom line was horrible: the company had to report a loss of €10.68 per share for fiscal 2020. The main reason for these numbers were the litigations and the settlement (we will come back to this). When looking at the core EPS instead, Bayer reported €6.39 in gains per share, which is actually one cent higher than in fiscal 2019. And finally, free cash flow also declined quite steep. While free cash flow in fiscal 2019 was €4,214 million, in 2020, Bayer only generated a free cash flow of €1,343 million. The reasons were once again the litigation payouts.

(Source: Bayer Q4/20 Presentation)

And as I already expected in my last article, Bayer will propose a dividend of €2.00 at the Annual Shareholder Meeting on April 27, 2021. When taking the core EPS of Bayer, we get a payout ratio of 31% and is therefore at the lower end of the company's payout range, which is between 30% and 40%.

Settlement of Glyphosate Litigations

And it definitely makes sense to pay out a lower amount as dividend, as the company will need cash for the settlement payouts in fiscal 2021. We also have to consider that Bayer still has huge amounts of debt on its balance sheet and management should be focused on preserving capital. Last year in June, Bayer already reached a settlement to resolve current as well as future litigations on glyphosate. But that agreement was challenged again and ran into trouble. Now it seems like a final agreement was reached. At the beginning of February, Bayer announced that it had reached an agreement with plaintiffs' counsel and that the new agreement is now subject to court approval. Bayer struck a $2 billion deal to resolve future legal claims and it will provide that amount for a four-year period. Both parties can agree to extend the settlement period if necessary.

Back on the Path of Growth

With the reached settlement, Bayer can now start to look forward, and after it reported more or less stable numbers in fiscal 2020, the guidance for 2021 is quite similar. We should once again expect a stable performance with sales improving in the low single digits to €42-43 billion. While sales are expected to improve, the core EPS is expected to decline in the low single digits to about €6.10 to €6.30. One of the most important numbers however is the free cash flow a company can generate, and for fiscal 2021, management is expecting a negative free cash flow between €3 billion and €4 billion as it has to pay about €8 billion in settlement payouts in fiscal 2021.

With the glyphosate litigations and the settlement hopefully being history right now, Bayer can focus on growing its business again, and when looking at the mid-term growth expectations, we see positive signs. All three segments are expected to grow in the low-to-mid single digits in the next few years. Until 2024, management is expecting crop sciences as well as consumer health to grow between 3% and 5% annually. The pharmaceutical segment is also expected to grow 3% to 5% annually until 2023, but for 2024, management is expecting a low-to-mid single-digit decline.

And Bayer is not only expecting top-line growth in the next few years, but also see core EPS improving to €7.00 to €7.50, and for fiscal 2024, Bayer is expecting free cash flow to be around €5 billion again.

While the short- to mid-term growth projections are slightly optimistic, we rather have to focus on long-term trends. As long-term investors, the performance over the next few years should not be ignored, but it becomes subordinate to the long-term growth expectations. First of all, Bayer is operating in three markets with a gigantic market size (€100 billion for crop science, €140 billion for consumer health, and €880 billion for pharmaceuticals). And while Bayer is a leader in key therapeutics areas in the pharma business, it is a clear market leader in the crop science business.

And when looking at the growth potential over the next few decades, Bayer will most likely profit from several megatrends. Over the next few decades, the worldwide demand for food, feed and fuel will continue to rise - driven mostly by overall population growth (2.2 billion more people until 2050) as well as the rapid expansion of a global middle class (about 5 billion people by 2030). And while population will grow, the pressure on ecosystems is rising. Due to climate change and soil erosion, we will lose about 12 million ha of agricultural land and about 1/3 of the globally produced food annually. Considering these trends and dynamics, it will become extremely important to offer sustainable solutions in agriculture to unlock unseized market potential. And Bayer seems to be well positioned as market leader to meet this need.

The global population will not only increase in the coming decades, but during the next 30 years the population will also get older. The number of elderly people (aged 65 or over) is projected to double to more than 1.5 billion until 2050. And as a result, we have to expect chronic conditions to increase, and more and more people needing treatment. Chronic diseases like cardiovascular diseases or cancer are expected to account for almost 80% of all deaths in people aged 60 years or older. And although Bayer is not offering specific numbers, management seems to be quite optimistic about the growth potential of its pharmaceutical segment - especially in the years following 2024.

Although it is almost impossible to make predictions over several decades as a lot can happen, assuming that Bayer can grow with a solid pace in the next few decades due to the above-mentioned megatrends seems reasonable.

Anton78 22 maart 2021 12:01

Intrinsic Value Calculation

I still remain confident that Bayer is undervalued at this point, and with the litigation issue resolved and the final settlement payments of €8 billion paid in 2021, several reasons to be bearish are off the table. When using the core earnings per share of fiscal 2020, Bayer is trading for 8.3 times earnings, and when using the guidance for fiscal 2021, we get a P/E ratio around 8.5. And for almost any company - especially companies that should be able to grow in the years to come - this is a very cheap valuation.

Additionally, we can use a discounted cash flow analysis to determine an intrinsic value for Bayer. And for a DCF calculation, we need to make some assumptions about free cash flow in the years to come. For fiscal 2021, we assume a negative free cash flow of €3.5 billion (according to guidance). For 2022, I assume a similar free cash flow as in 2019 and until 2024 free cash flow will increase to €5 billion (company's mid-term targets). For the years after 2024, we assume 5% growth till perpetuity, which seems realistic for a company that is profiting from several megatrends and has an economic moat around its business.

When using these numbers from above and a 10% discount rate, we get an intrinsic value of €80.34 for Bayer. And Bayer is therefore trading about 1/3 below its intrinsic value, which is leaving enough margin of safety to counterbalance any errors we might have made in our calculation.

In my last article, I speculated that the stock could potentially drop to the low 30s - the low during the Financial Crisis. And when looking at the chart, there are not so many reasons to be extremely bullish. The stock is still in a downtrend and trading below the red declining trendlines. Additionally, Bayer is trading below the 200-month simple moving average.

Nevertheless, with the settlement and the stock being deeply undervalued in my opinion, I consider a further decline to the low 30s less likely at this point. And the stock also bounced off the black trendline for a second time - and that can be interpreted as successful pullback, which is bullish.

Conclusion

From a technical point of view, the stock is still in a downtrend, but considering that Bayer is trading about 30% below its intrinsic value and for a single digit P/E ratio, we can assume that Bayer is a bargain. Especially when considering the long-term growth potential due to several megatrends and the reached settlement, the current valuation does not seem to reflect the intrinsic value of the stock. I remain bullish on the stock and considering its low valuation in combination with its recession-proof business, it is also a good stock to own in the next few years, in which we have to expect serious turmoil in the markets.

seekingalpha.com/article/4415032-baye...

Anton78 24 maart 2021 09:55

Bij gebrek aan nieuws, levert bayer iets van 75 miljoen euro op.

Brazil's Uniao Quimica buys Bayer plant in Sao Paulo

By Reuters Staff

1 Min Read

BRASILIA, March 23 (Reuters) - Brazil’s Uniao Quimica is acquiring a Bayer plant in Sao Paulo and some contraceptive brands manufactured at the unit for an undisclosed value, according to a statement on Tuesday.

Employees at the factory will be transferred to Uniao Quimica, which will manufacture other Bayer brands in the acquired unit while the German company transfers production to its Weimar plant, the Uniao Quimica statement said. (Reporting by Anthony Boadle Editing by Chris Reese)

www.valor.com.br/international/brief/...

Anton78 24 maart 2021 10:07

Jammer dat Bayer na een mooie dag gisteren vandaag weer een stap terug zet. Dit schiet niet op zo, vooral zijwaardse bewegingen waar ik stiekem hoopte naar de 54 / 55 regionen te mogen. Hopelijk herstelt de koers nog wat in de loop van de dag.

Anton78 24 maart 2021 16:06

Wederom een mooie koersdoel verhoging, van 62 naar 68. Nu nog een keer iemand die er iets mee gaat doen...

KEPLER CHEUVREUX belässt BAYER AG auf 'Buy'

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Das Analysehaus Kepler Cheuvreux hat das Kursziel für Bayer von 62 auf 68 Euro angehoben und die Einstufung auf "Buy" belassen. Als einer der weltweit führenden Agrarchemiekonzerne hätten die Leverkusener weit über 2021 hinaus Rückenwind, schrieb Analyst Christian Faitz in einer am Dienstag vorliegenden Studie./ag/mis

Veröffentlichung der Original-Studie: 23.03.2021 / Uhrzeit in Studie nicht angegeben / GMT
Erstmalige Weitergabe der Original-Studie: Datum in Studie nicht angegeben / Uhrzeit in Studie nicht angegeben / Zeitzone in Studie nicht angegeben

Hinweis: Informationen zur Offenlegungspflicht bei Interessenkonflikten im Sinne von § 85 Abs. 1 WpHG, Art. 20 VO (EU) 596/2014 für das genannte Analysten-Haus finden Sie unter web.dpa-afx.de/offenlegungspflicht/of...

www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-...

Anton78 26 maart 2021 15:24

Het lijkt weer helemaal nergens op vandaag, Bayer is dood geld voor het moment.

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