theo1 schreef op 1 maart 2022 14:37:
Overstretched Russian forces could struggle to hold Ukraine at current levels, expert predicts
Analysis from CNN's Brad Lendon
Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has shown strength that has surprised many observers, but one international expert pointed out how historical precedent bodes poorly for Moscow should its forces be unable to subdue Ukraine quickly under current Russian troop levels.
“The Russian army is overextended and in a precarious position if Ukraine becomes a protracted war,” Seth Jones, vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a social media post.
“Assuming 150,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine and a population of 44 million, that is a force ratio of 3.4 soldiers per 1,000 people. You can’t hold territory with those numbers,” Jones said.
Jones compared the current Russian force ratio to occupations after previous wars around the world, saying successful occupations had force ratios that were “astronomically higher.”
For example, he said:
The Allied forces occupying Germany in 1945 had 89.3 troops to 1,000 inhabitants.
NATO forces in Bosnia in 1995 had 17.5 troops to 1,000 inhabitants.
NATO forces in Kosovo in 2000 had 19.3 to 1,000.
And international forces in East Timor in 2000 had 9.8 to 1,000.
“High numbers of troops and police are critical to establish basic law and order,” Jones said.
“In fact, the number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine aren’t even enough to hold any major cities for long.”
And if Russian occupiers face a guerrilla war in the event the Ukrainian government falls, the odds won’t be in Russia’s favor, he said.
“They will be in serious danger of being picked apart by Ukrainian insurgents.”
--- einde citaat
Dat is wat ik bedoel. Met 20 per 1000 en een bevolking van 44 miljoen, kom je op 20 * 44.000 = 880.000. Dat is zowat het hele Russische leger om Oekraïne te bezetten. En ze moeten er rekening mee houden dat ze voortdurend verliezen moeten compenseren. Onder moordende sancties. Dat gaan ze nooit volhouden. Misschien denken ze met terreurmethoden minder nodig te hebben, misschien trekken ze zich terug op een paar steden, maar dan is het nog steeds extreem duur.