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Gazing at the crystal ball of connected cars – Part I
By Paul on Jan 13, 2017
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2017’s prospects of autonomous, mobility and connectivity, explored by Susan Kuchinskas. [Mob.Kuchinskas.2016.10.12]
2016 was a vibrant, productive and profitable year for companies having anything to do with autonomy and connected vehicles. This report examines the current state of the industry and what we can expect 2007, with an emphasis on four areas:
· The evolution of the autonomy concept
· The changing view and business models for mobility
· Legislation and regulation of mobility and autonomy
· Whether DSRC or 5G will become the standard for connectivity
1. A new view of autonomy
Back in 2014, 2020 – the target date for the production of autonomous vehicles by many carmakers – seemed comfortably in the future. Now, it seems uncomfortably close. Is this really doable?
Many manufacturers are sticking to that 2020 date for the production of autonomous vehicles; some now say it is 2021; and Tesla would insist that it’s already accomplished.
It’s clear now that autonomy in 2020 does not mean self-driving cars sharing the highways. At the same time, a different path to autonomy has appeared: ADAS will become smarter and smarter but drivers will still need to keep their hands on the wheel, while true Level 4 autonomous vehicles will drive themselves without human intervention in limited scenarios.
“For Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy, you’re talking public transportation,” says Strategy Analytics’ Roger Lanctot. “We will see more enhanced cruise control, AEB and traffic assist – those functions where your car does for you what it should.”
A public transportation role
Ford, like others, has pushed back the happy day to 2021, when it aims to produce a Level 4, high-capacity vehicle to be used in a ride-hailing or ride-sharing service. The vehicles, sans steering wheels, accelerator and brake pedals, would operate in geo-fenced areas.
In fact, this seems to be the shape of autonomy to come for the next decade or two: bus- or taxi-like services operating along pre-determined routes in limited areas that are probably not open to private vehicles.
Navigant Research projects that there will be 4.5M Level 4 vehicles in production by 2025 and Abuelsamid expects some initial deployments of Level 4 in 2020 or 2021. “I think the numbers of vehicles we’ll see in that time frame will be in the low thousands, at most, globally,” he says. Over time, as people become more comfortable with autonomy and the vehicles have proven they can interact safely with human-driven vehicles, he believes the zones where they’re allowed will expand.
Nissan is promoting the no hands culture, although not, it says, for current models. In July, it announced that it would begin selling its Serena model with ProPILOT autonomous driving technology in Japan. The system is designed for highway use in single-lane traffic and its promotional video promises multi-lane highway driving in 2018 and autonomous city driving in 2020. That video also shows the driver doing hands- and eyes-off-the-wheel activities including talking with friends and reading a map.
Volvo is sticking with its intent to have a commercial autonomous vehicle on the commercial market by 2020, according to Marcus Rothoff, autonomous driving specialist. It plans two on-road tests, in the UK and Gothenberg, in the coming year. Regulators in Britain have not yet made a decision whether cars in the tests, driven by consumers, will need to be identified.
“We are aiming at not striping the cars which will be used by customers within the Drive Me trial,” Rothoff says. “The reason is that we are not seeking to get reactions from other road users on our cars, such people challenging them by doing really harsh braking in front of them.”
The tests will also look at the handoff between driver and car. “For us, it is of outmost importance that the role of the driver is crystal clear when he or she is in control of the car and when he or she has the freedom to do something else,” Rothoff says.
Toyota has officially said that human beings will be driving cars and in charge of the driving for the foreseeable future. Even if a vehicle is equipped with autonomous features, a human driver will have to decide whether they’ll operate.
Roger Melen, senior advisor, Toyota InfoTechnology Center USA, says: “I think there’s no doubt that autonomous cars will have more limitations and be less flexible. There will be more situations where people would not want them to operate.” Those situations include bad weather or roads without clear markings. And Melen points out that it’s not always possible to know when a trip begins whether car and driver will encounter such circumstances.
He also sees limits on what autonomous vehicles will be allowed to do. “The ones with no brakes or steering wheel will likely be going slower than human drivers for a long time,” he says.