of het al was/is geplaatst SNS advies een paar dgn geleden,
Accsys (Buy): Possible impact of Solvay possibly selling Acetow
The facts: According to a Bloomberg article, Solvay is exploring the sale of its Acetow division valued at an estimated EUR 1.4bn. The rumour hasn't been confirmed yet by Solvay. Acetow is Solvay's division with which Accsys has signed the licence agreement for the production of Accoya in Europe.
Our analysis: Solvay Acetow is a global player in the manufacturing of cellulose acetate fiber, mainly used for the production of cigarette filters, but also fibers used in textiles and packaging for cosmetics. The company has production units in Germany, France, Russia and the US. Acetow is planning to expand its product portfolio by signing a licence agreement with Accsys, which allows Acetow to manufacture and distribute Accoya wood. Last August, Solvay-Acetow decided to build the first Accoya licence plant in Friburg, Germany, which could be operational in the second quarter of 2016.
Now that Accsys's plant in Arnhem is nearing full capacity, the licence plant of Solvay brings the needed additional capacity in Europe for further growth in Accoya. Solvay is currently also exploring possibilities of licence agreements with Accsys outside Europe, for which a three year licence option can be signed soon.
The rumours haven't been confirmed yet and the eventual outcome is of course also uncertain. At the moment, the impact on the licence agreement with Accsys Technologies is difficult to judge. If the rumours aren't true, Solvay-Acetow is expected to continue to execute the licence agreement with Accsys. If the rumours are true, it could impact the licence agreement with Accsys but it could also be well possible that the eventual acquirer is also interested in the global rollout of Accoya wood.
Any delay, however, in the process of building the first Accoya licence plant might hamper overall growth in Accoya revenues and therefore also will have an impact on the company's financial position. Accsys's net cash of more than EUR 10m still seems sufficient until the company is expected to be cash flow positive in 2016.
Conclusion & Action: Accsys has shown strong growth in Accoya revenues in recent years and is nearing full capacity at its production plant. The planned Solvay licence plant is needed for additional capacity in order to fulfil the continued high demand for the product. Any delays can hamper overall growth of Accoya, but at the moment it is difficult to judge what the eventual impact will be. Our base case scenario includes continued good growth at the Arnhem plant, the Solvay licence for Accoya and we attach a 50% success rate to the Medite licence for Tricoya. We currently have a Buy rating.