Wanneer je de opmerkingen van S&P indertijd over de balans dd. 6-2012 in ogenschouw neemt, dan mag je je verwachten aan hun negatieve reactie. Die solvabiliteit kan een heikel punt worden, maar de weg van "strong capital strength" naar "BBB" is wel lang...:
The group's headline IFRS capital has been severely impaired in 2011 and first-half 2012 by the contraction of the collateralized 'AAA' curve, which is used to discount technical liabilities. The collateralized 'AAA' curve's interest rate has fallen because of the eurozone sovereign and corporate downgrades that removed many of the higher-yielding bonds from the 'AAA' basket. As a result, shareholders' funds declined from €4,621 million at December 2010 to €3,866 million at December 2011 and €2,860 million at June 2012.
The group's regulatory solvency has been less severely affected as it utilizes the ECB 'AAA' curve, which has declined less steeply than the collateralized curve. Insurance Groups Directive solvency was a comfortable 194% of the required minimum at June 2012.
Our view of capitalization remains strong, despite the contraction of shareholders' funds. However this assessment depends more on life value in-force than previously, and we therefore see the quality of the group's capital as diminished. At end-2011, EV was €4,346 million and value-in-force was €2,275 million. Through 2011, EV was bolstered by changes in longevity assumptions and expense efficiencies, somewhat offset by investment losses and low interest rates.
Outlook
The stable outlook on the group's rating reflects our expectation that the rating will remain unchanged over the rating horizon. We could lower the rating if shareholders' funds were to continue to deteriorate and such that the group's capital strength fell below the 'BBB' category, according to our proprietary capital model.
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