Beursonline.nl

voda 18 februari 2013 16:33

0

Kuwait budget surplus likely to hit USD 50 billion

Kuwait's budget surplus could be in the rabge of KWD 11.9 billion to KWD 14.4 billion for the current fiscal year backed by high oil revenue before allocations to the Reserve Fund for Future Generations/\.

According to the report by National bank of Kuwait, the crude oil prices saw steady gains through January, thanks to a combination of an improved outlook for the global economy and news of OPEC production cuts.

The price of Kuwait Export Crude rose from USD 107 per barrel at the end of December to USD 112 by early February, averaging USD 108 for the month. Brent crude climbed as high as USD 118 on February 1, up USD 6 in a month to its highest level since May.

Analysts have revised up their forecasts for oil demand growth in 2013, though due partly to a base effect from a stronger 2012. Still, oil fundamentals might loosen this year unless OPEC cuts output further.

Meanwhile, on the supply side, Saudi Arabian crude output fell to its lowest level in 19 months 9.2 million barrels per day in December, a drop of 0.4 million barrels per day from November.

Saudi authorities linked this to a fall in seasonal demand from its customers rather than a deliberate change in policy. Nevertheless, the move was a signal that OPEC is prepared to respond quickly to signs of looser market fundamentals.

Forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2013 have generally been revised up over the past month, thanks mainly to estimates of stronger demand in the Q4 in 2012 than previously thought which generates a higher base starting point for this year.

Most analysts now see demand growth of 0.9 to 1.0 million barrels per day in 2013 up around 0.1 million barrels per day from a month ago though slightly down on 2012 levels. In OECD countries, demand is once again expected to fall though by less than in 2012 thanks to improved economic fundamentals.

According to NBK, the Total Opec production (including Iraq) dropped considerably in December to below 30.4 million barrels per day. This was driven by large declines in Iraq, where output plunged by about 197,000 barrels per day to 6 month low of 3.0 million barrels per day though official figures point to larger declines of some 255,000 barrels per day. With modest oil demand and strong non OPEC supply growth expected in 2013, OPEC may need to remain active to prevent a weakening in oil markets and prices.

Alternatively, non OPEC supplies could receive a boost from stronger than expected North American production or a recovery in its output elsewhere. In this case, the price of KEC falls sharply to below USD 100 per barrels by mid 2013. However, this will prompt Opec members, specifically in the GCC, to make big production cuts in order to stabilize prices in the second half of the year.

Source - Trade Arabia

voda 18 februari 2013 16:34

0

Oil and gas tops M&A transactions list

With an average of over four transactions announced globally every day in 2012, the oil and gas sector has remained one of the most active sectors for mergers and acquisitions.

According to Ernst & Young's Global Oil and Gas Transactions Review, oil and gas transactions totalled a staggering USD 402 billion in 2012 representing 19% increase compared to 2011. A total of 92 transactions exceeded USD 1 billion in value compared to just 71 in 2011. This was despite a marginal decrease in oil and gas transaction volumes from 1,664 deals in 2011 to 1,616 in 2012.

Middle East transactions remained concentrated on Kurdistan with four of the five biggest deals concerning assets or operations in the oil rich region of Iraq. Overall, there were 45 transactions in the Middle East region an increase of 14% from 2011. However, the average transaction size decreased from USD 3.6 to USD 2.8 billion.

Mr D Thorsten Ploss Ernst & Young Mena oil and gas leader said that "Last year saw a continuation of trends we have seen for the last few years supported by a relatively stable oil price. The increase in the number of larger deals globally was a function of more capital becoming available to the right class of buyer together with increased pressure from asset and company owners to crystallize returns."

Mr Ploss said that "Companies remain cautious in more mature markets due to the uncertain demand picture, driven by an uncertain economic outlook and austerity measures in Europe. The region appears to be facing many of the same geopolitical and economic uncertainties as 2012."

He said that based on current trends, we expect activity to continue, although political uncertainty in North Africa will continue to depress activity there. In the absence of material shocks, we expect the sector to remain resilient. Key strategic drivers remain the same.

He added that while capital availability is generally improving, funding remains a challenge for smaller companies. Cash constraints, coupled with cost escalation, is likely to drive both asset and corporate opportunities. Larger companies with stronger balance sheets are most likely to be the beneficiaries.

Source - Trade Arabia

voda 18 februari 2013 16:39

0

Rosneft seeks USD 30 billion from China

Rosneft may borrow USD 30 billion from China in exchange for doubling oil supplies under a deal that would make Beijing the largest consumer of Russian oil.

Four industry sources familiar with the situation said that Rosneft was in talks with China's state firm CNPC about the loan. The state controlled oil firm is believed to be seeking the loan to help it complete its USD 55 billion acquisition of TNK-BP, a deal that will make it the world's largest publicly traded oil producer.

The deal is similar to the USD 25 billion transaction the two companies agreed upon a decade ago when Rosneft and Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft borrowed money to help Rosneft acquire the assets of nationalized oil producer Yukos while agreeing to build a pipeline to supply China with 300,000 barrels per day for 15 years.

Source - The Moscow Times.com

voda 18 februari 2013 19:46

0

Olieprijs licht lager bij gebrek aan volume vanwege President's Day

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs blijft maandag dichtbij de slotprijs van voor het weekend, bij een gebrek aan impulsen vanwege de viering van President's Day in de Verenigde Staten waardoor Wall Street zijn deuren gesloten houdt en er nauwelijks nieuws of macrodata zijn om richting te bieden.

Vanwege de viering van de geboortedag van president George Washington, hebben veel handelaren een lang weekend en wordt er in New York alleen electronisch gehandeld op de oliemarkten.

De maartfuture voor een vat ruwe olie noteerde op de New York Mercantile Exchange aan het eind van de middag $0,17 lager op $95,69.

De volumes zijn maandag laag, waarbij opmerkingen van ECB-president Mario Draghi over de economie in Europa en de euro weinig invloed hebben. Verder wordt vooral uitgekeken naar macro-data later deze week, ondermeer over de Amerikaanse huizen- en arbeidsmarkt als ook de wekelijkse olievoorraden, die op woensdag verschijnen.

Maandag eerder op de dag waarschuwde het Internationaal Energie Agentschap (IEA) nog dat de hoge prijs van Brent ruwe olie een groot risico vormt voor de wereldeconomie.

"De huidige prijzen die we nu zien zijn een groot probleem voor het wereldwijde economische herstel, vooral voor Europa, dat momenteel de zwakste schakel binnen de wereldeconomie is", benadrukte het hoofd van de IEA, Fatih Birol.

De aprilfuture voor een vat Brent olie sloot maandag op $117,50 in Londen, na eerder op de dag tot $117,66 te zijn gestegen.

Door Marleen Groen; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 5715 200; marleen.groen@dowjones.com

voda 19 februari 2013 21:13

0

Olieprijs sluit hoger

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is dinsdag hoger gesloten, waarmee de olieprijs de stijgende Amerikaanse aandelenmarkten volgden, in reactie op de recente toename van het aantal mergers en overnames.

Daarnaast putte de markt hoop uit positieve macro-data uit Duitsland, waaruit bleek dat het vertrouwen van financieel analisten in de vooruitzichten van de Duitse economie in februari sterk is gestegen. De verwachtingsindex, opgesteld door het Zentrum fur Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), kwam uit op 48,2, versus 31,5 in januari, waarbij werd uitgegaan van een stijging van de index tot 35,0. Marktvolgers interpreteerden de data als een signaal dat het economisch herstel van de grootste economie van de eurozone aan momentum wint.

De markt negeerde daarmee tegenvallende Amerikaanse macro-data - het vertrouwen van Amerikaanse huizenbouwers daalde in februari onverwacht - en legde daarmee tevens de toenemende zorgen over de dreigende deadline van de zogenaamde 'sequester' naast zich neer. In het geval de Democraten en Republikeinen voor 1 maart geen overeenstemming bereiken over maatregelen om het Amerikaans begrotingstekort terug te dringen treden per 1 maart een reeks automatische bezuinigingen in werking op overheidsdiensten ter omvang van $85 miljard.

Aangezien Wall Street maandag gesloten was vanwege de viering van President's Day is de publicatie van de wekelijkse olievoorraden van woensdag naar donderdag verschoven.

De maartfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot dinsdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,80 hoger op $96,66.

- Door Patrick Buis; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 571 52 00; patrick.buis@dowjones.com

voda 20 februari 2013 17:08

0

Iran recoverable oil reserves increase to 157 billion barrels

Tehran Times reported that Iran’s recoverable oil reserves have been increased to about 157 billion barrels up to now in the current Iranian calendar year which ends on March 20.

Mr Rostam Qasemi oil minister of Iran said that some 14 billion barrels of crude oil reserves have been discovered since the beginning of the current year of which 3 billion barrels is recoverable.

Iran has announced that it will implement 11 plans by the Iranian calendar month of Mordad 1392 (July 22nd and August 22nd 2013) with the goal of boosting oil production by 175,000 barrels per day. Once all the phases of the development plans are implemented output will be increased by another 500,000 barrels per day.

In November 2012, Mr Mahmoud Zirakchianzadeh MD of Iranian Offshore Oil Company said that Iran’s National Development Fund has allocated USD 1.5 billion for developing the country’s oilfields in the Persian Gulf.

According to an Iranian law, 37.5% of oil revenue is deposited into the NDF and is then channeled into the development of oil and gas fields and 62.5% of oil revenue is allocated for national budget expenditures.

Source - Tehran Times

voda 20 februari 2013 22:05

0

Olieprijs sluit lager

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs is woensdag lager gesloten, na een sell-off eerder op de dag, waardoor de prijs onder de $95 per vat dook. De volatiliteit werd voornamelijk veroorzaakt door de overgang van de maart- naar de aprilfuture.

De maartfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot op de New York Mercantile Exchange $2,20 lager op $94,46. Dit contract liep woensdag rond het slot van de handelsdag af. De aprilfuture verloor $1,88 en sloot op $95,22 per vat.

Al meer dan een maand verhandelen de futures in een range tussen de $95 en $98. En hoewel beleggers meer vertrouwen hebben in de Amerikaanse economie, is er nog altijd bezorgdheid dat mogelijke knelpunten in de Verenigde Staten de binnenlandse olieprijzen op een sterke korting zullen houden ten opzichte van de olieprijzen aan de andere kant van de oceaan.

Woensdag schrokken beleggers met name van een plotselinge flinke stijging in het volume van het aantal verhandelde contracten. Tijdens een groot deel van de sessie werden er minder dan 2.000 contracten verhandeld, maar rond 16.00 uur Nederlandse tijd was er plots een piek in het aantal contracten voor de aprilfuture. Woensdag markeerde de overgang van het maart-, naar het aprilcontract.

"Er waren een boel speculanten op de markt, dus wellicht was het tijd voor een correctie", licht Andy Lebow, vermogensbeheerder bij Jefferies Bache, de beweging toe.

Voor donderdag wordt vooral uitgekeken naar het wekelijkse rapport over de Amerikaanse olievoorraden. De publicatie verschijnt deze week e e n dag later vanwege de viering van President's Day op maandag.

Vooraf gaan geraadpleegde economen uit van een stijging van de voorraden ruwe olie met 2,2 miljoen vaten. De benzinevoorraden zouden met 800.000 vaten zijn gedaald, terwijl voor de voorraden stookolie een afname met 1,5 miljoen vaten wordt voorzien. De capaciteitsbenutting zou afgelopen week zijn uitgekomen op 83,5%.

Het rapport verschijnt donderdag om 17.00 uur.

Door Marleen Groen; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 5715 200; marleen.groen@dowjones.com

voda 21 februari 2013 17:04

0

India pays for Iran oil in rupees

Reuters reported that India is now paying Iran only in rupees for its oil after it lost another payment route in euros due to tougher sanctions from February 6.

Sources at local refiners said that the rupee is only partly convertible, limiting its international acceptability although Iran can use the currency to buy non sanctioned goods and services from India.

Turkey's Halkbank had been handling payments for Iranian oil in euros from India since July 2011 after other conduits were choked by earlier sanctions but the latest US measures effectively prevent this.

India had been paying through Halkbank for about 45% of its massive Iranian oil bill since April 2012 with the rest in rupees. The two nations had been trying to find goods for Iran to buy from India to smooth a huge trade imbalance.

India's total exports to Iran in April to September 2012 amounted to USD 1.4 billion, a quarter of the value of its imports from Iran during the period, according to Indian government data.

There have been several visits by trade delegations to try to boost exports from India, especially of foodstuffs which are not prohibited under sanctions. Iran has bought sugar from India but attempts to sell wheat to Tehran have faced quality issues. The two sides have yet to find another way to settle their oil trade and Indian refiners are currently retaining 55% of their payments to Tehran.

HPCL Mittal Energy Limited part owned by steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal may now be able to clear its dues in rupees, built up after India said it could only pay 45% in rupees and Halkbank refused to open a euro account for the private refiner. HMEL bought a total 4 million barrels of oil from Iran between September and October 2012.

Source – Reuters

voda 21 februari 2013 17:27

0

Amerikaanse olievoorraden stijgen

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De voorraden ruwe olie in de Verenigde Staten zijn vorige week harder gestegen dan verwacht, blijkt donderdag uit cijfers van de Amerikaanse Energy Information Administration. De data verschenen deze week een dag later vanwege de viering van President's Day op maandag.

De voorraden ruwe olie stegen in de week tot 15 februari met 4,14 miljoen vaten tot 376,388 miljoen vaten. Er werd uitgegaan van een stijging met 1,7 miljoen vaten.

De benzinevoorraden daalden met een afname van 2,88 miljoen vaten harder dan voorzien, tot een totaal van 230,352 miljoen vaten. Gerekend werd op een afname van 700.000 vaten.

De voorraden stookolie en diesel namen met 2,27 miljoen vaten af tot 123,627 miljoen vaten. Hier hadden analisten een afname met 1,6 miljoen vaten geraamd.

De capaciteitsbenutting van raffinaderijen kwam vorige week uit op 82,9% tegenover 83,8% een week eerder. Er werd door geraadpleegde economen gerekend op een lichte afname van de bezettingsgraad tot 83,6%.

Door Marleen Groen; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 5715 200; marleen.groen@dowjones.com

voda 21 februari 2013 22:00

0

Olieprijs sluit lager door zwakke macrodata en stijgende dollar

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs is donderdag lager geeindigd, doordat de dollar klom en zwakke macrodata voer waren voor zorgen over de vraag naar olie.

De aprilfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot donderdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $2,38 lager op $92,84. Dit betekent een verlies van 2,5% en de laagste slotprijs van 2013 tot nu toe.

De olieprijs klom donderdag kortstondig tot boven $93 na publicatie van de wekelijkse olievoorraden.

"Slechte economische cijfers uit de eurozone, een sterkere dollar, toename in de wekelijkse olievoorraden en berichten dat de Saudi's wellicht hun productie gaan verhogen [gedurende het tweede kwartaal] hebben ertoe geleid dat enkele niet-commerciele partijen (zoals hedgefondsen) uit hun lange posities zijn gestapt", zegt Alan Herbst van Utilis Advisory Group in een reactie per e-mail.

Uit de cijfers voor de wekelijkse olievoorraden kwam donderdag een groter dan verwachte toename van de voorraad olie tevoorschijn, maar ook een aanzienlijke daling in de benzinevoorraden.

"Uit de cijfers van het Energy Information Agency (EIA) blijkt hoe goed we voorzien zijn binnen de markt", zegt Tariq Zahir van Tyche Capital Advisors. "De productmarkten zagen een groter dan verwacht resultaat, maar ons wist dit niet te verrassen gezien het onderhoud dat de raffinaderijen op de planning hebben staan."

Daarnaast stonden zorgen over de vraag donderdag weer centraal, mede ingegeven door teleurstellende macrocijfers in de eurozone. Daarbij kwam de inkoopmanagersindex voor het valutagebied in februari met 47,3 uit op het laagste niveau in twee maanden, wat erop duidt dat de neerwaartse ontwikkeling in het gebied verstrekt.

De macro-economische cijfers in de VS waren gemengd. De wekelijkse steunaanvragen namen meer dan verwacht toe, terwijl de inflatie in januari niet veranderde.

Waar de bestaande huizenverkopen in januari iets beter waren dan verwacht, stelde de inkoopmanagersindex juist weer teleur.

Daarnaast won de dollar donderdag aan kracht, doordat de woensdagavond gepubliceerde notulen van de Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) hebben geleid tot een toename in de zorgen over het versneld beeindigen van QE3.

Normaal gesproken zorgt een sterkere dollar ervoor dat de in dollars uitgedrukte olie duurder wordt voor houders van andere valuta, waardoor de vraag en olieprijs dalen.

Daar tegenover stond een door analisten van Barclays gepubliceerd rapport waarin staat dat de Chinese energiebehoefte de markt in de toekomst zou kunnen ondersteunen.

- Door Elco van Groningen; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31-20-5715200; elco.vangroningen@dowjones.com

voda 22 februari 2013 17:01

0

Kuwait records KWD 15 billion surplus

Strong oil prices allowed Kuwait to record a budget surplus of around KWD 14.7 billion in the first 8 months of the current 2012 to 2013 fiscal year but the balance is projected to slip at the end of the year because of higher spending.

A key Kuwaiti bank has said that the Gulf emirate is also expected to record a surplus of around KWD 10.3 billion in its 2013 to 2014 fiscal year although it has projected a deficit of KWD 3.05 billion.

Forecasts by the National Bank of Kuwait showed that the country's actual budget surplus could end the current year at KWD 13.1 billion on an average oil price of USD 100.

During the first 8 months of this fiscal year, which ends on March 31 the surplus was put at KWD 3.8 billion after allocations to the Reserve Fund for Future Generations. Full year surplus could end the year at KWD 6.27 billion after allocations for FFFG.

In a study published this week, NBK said that the actual surplus this year could have been higher but it was stifled by an increase in actual public expenditure. Latest public finance data show a significant boost in government spending in November. This may be linked to a correction of under reporting issues, which likely underestimated actual spending in previous months.

Nevertheless, the headline rate of spending remains low relative to previous years. The rise in reported spending has capped large monthly increases in the budget surplus, despite soaring oil revenues increases in the budget surplus have slowed significantly as a result of the recent acceleration in spending.

The report showed that totalrevenues for the first 8 months of the fiscal year reached KWD 21.6 billion on the backof soaring oil revenues. The 15% rise in oil receipts, however, is stronger than expected given 1% decline in Kuwait Export Crude prices and 10% increase in oil production over the same period.

Government spending climbed to KWD 6.9 billion in the first 8 months, equivalent to one third of the amount budgeted for the entire year. Total spending surged by KWD 2.7 billion from October, with the YoY decline in spending slowing considerably to three per cent compared to 31% at the end of the previous month. Nevertheless, a large part of the increase in spending during the month likely reflects the pick up in reporting, rather than a fundamental acceleration in the rate of spending."

As for 2013 to 2014, the report showed a KWD 3 billion budgeted deficit could turn into a surplus of around KWD 10.3 billion on the back of higher oil revenue. It expected total revenue to climb to KWD 29.9 billion against budgeted revenue of KWD 18 billion. Its scenario involves unchanged spending at KWD 21.14 billion.

Source - Emirates Business 24/7

voda 24 februari 2013 16:38

0

Oil reserves in Persian Gulf hit 96 billion barrels

Iran Daily cited Mr Mohamoud Zirakchianzadeh MD of Iran Offshore Oil Company as saing that the volume of Iran's in place oil reserves in Persian Gulf excluding those of South Pars' oil layers are estimated at 96 billion barrels.

Mr Zirakchianzadeh said that the development projects of 17 joint oil and gas fields of the country are managed by IOOC. About USD 28 billion worth of agreements have been signed in the upstream sections of the oil industry since the year to March 2007 till now.

He said that the oil storage capacity of the regions managed by IOOC has exceeded 3 million barrels and the figure is expected to hit 8.1 million in the H1 of the next Iranian year, 5 billion barrels of which pertain to Behregan Oilfield in Bushehr province. Drilling operation of the onshore section of Kish Gas Field has been completed adding the field will produce 70 million to 100 million cubic meters of gas per day.

Mr Zirakchianzadeh said that the gas field is expected to meet the requirements of Kish Island some 50 million cubic meters of gas will be transferred from the gas field to Siri Island in Hormuzgan province.

He said that once the natural gas liquids production unit of Siri Island located in southern Hormozgan province, become operational, it will provide the gas requirements of Qeshm and Kish Islands and produce 7,500 tons propane, 3,500 barrels of butane, 1,350 barrels of pentane and 1,300 barrels of gas condensates per day.

Source - Iran Daily

voda 27 februari 2013 16:59

0

Amerikaanse olievoorraden stijgen minder hard dan verwacht

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De voorraden ruwe olie in de Verenigde Staten zijn vorige week gestegen, maar minder dan vooraf werd verwacht, blijkt woensdag uit cijfers van de Amerikaanse Energy Information Administration.

De voorraden ruwe olie stegen in de week tot 22 februari met 1,13 miljoen vaten tot 377,518 miljoen vaten. Er werd uitgegaan van een stijging met 2,5 miljoen vaten.

De benzinevoorraden daalden met een afname van 1,86 miljoen tot een totaal van 228,495 miljoen vaten harder dan verwacht. Gerekend werd op een afname van 700.000 vaten.

De voorraden stookolie en diesel stegen onverwacht met 557.000 vaten tot 124,184 miljoen vaten. Hier hadden analisten een afname met 1,4 miljoen vaten geraamd.

De capaciteitsbenutting van raffinaderijen kwam vorige week uit op 85,1% tegenover 82,9% een week eerder. Er werd door geraadpleegde economen gerekend ongewijzigde bezettingsgraad van 82,9%.

- Door Patrick Buis; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 571 52 00; patrick.buis@dowjones.com

voda 27 februari 2013 17:08

0

Saudi Arabia makes up 52pct of GCC current account surplus in 2012

The Saudi Gazette reported that the GCC region has emerged as the 12th largest economy in the world with its nominal gross domestic product reaching a new record high of USD 1.56 trillion in 2012 up from USD 1.44 trillion in 2011.

The National Bank of Abu Dhabi said that in 2013, GCC's nominal GDP is forecast to rise to USD 1.61 trillion while UAE's nominal GDP is projected at USD 368 billion.

For the first time ever, GCC value of exports reached USD 1 trillion up from USD 932 billion in 2011. This is almost double the 2009 level of USD 526 billion. UAE value of exports accounted for about a third of the GCC total. Value of oil and related exports rose to a new record high of USD 692 billion up from USD 644 billion in 2011.

GCC is estimated to have registered a trade surplus of USD 558 billion in 2012 again a new record. Services account remained in deficit, while workers' remittances were a record USD 77 billion culminating in an aggregate current account surplus of USD 346 billion, equivalent to 22.3% of GDP.

Saudi Arabia accounted for 52% of the GCC current account surplus with USD 178.5 billion. UAE current account surplus is estimated at USD 32 billion in the same period. Non oil sectors are forecast to grow by a healthy 5.4% YoY in 2013, spearheading overall economic activity given the slowdown in hydrocarbon.

GCC is estimated to have registered a trade surplus of USD 558 billion in 2012 and in 2013, it is forecast to ease to USD 492 billion. Saudi Arabia accounted for 47% of the GCC economy while the UAE accounted for 23%. Qatar and Kuwait accounted for 12% and 11% of the GCC economy, respectively. Oman and Bahrain accounted for about 5% and 2% respectively.

The bank said that the real GDP growth of the region slowed from an estimated 7.4% in 2011 to 5.3% in 2012. Saudi Arabia accounted for about 48% of the GCC real GDP growth rate while the UAE accounted for 25%.

Dr Gyas Gokkent NBAD's group chief economist said that for the first time ever, value of GCC exports reached USD 1 trillion up from USD 932 billion in 2011. This is almost double the 2009 level of USD 526 billion. The value of UAE exports accounted for about a third of the GCC total.

In 2012, oil production by the GCC region was also at a record level, with crude oil output averaging about 17 million barrels per day. Last year was a record year in many respects. It was the second consecutive year with the average price of oil above USD 100 per barrel. The average price of crude oil was the highest ever at USD 109.1 per barrel and up from USD 105.5 per barrel in 2011. The value of oil and related exports rose to a new record high of USD 692 billion up from USD 644 billion in 2011.

NBAD said that the GCC is estimated to have registered a trade surplus of USD 558 billion in 2012 up from USD 529 billion in 2011 again a new record. Services account remained in deficit, while workers' remittances were a record USD 77 billion culminating in an aggregate current account surplus of USD 346 billion, equivalent to 22.3% of the GDP.

In 2013, GCC trade surplus is forecast to ease to USD 492 billion, while the current account surplus is estimated at USD 270 billion. The fiscal surplus is forecast to ease to USD 171 billion. The UAE is forecast to register surpluses in its current account and budget equivalent to about 8.5% and 6.8% of the GDP respectively.

Source - The Saudi Gazette

voda 27 februari 2013 21:56

0

Olieprijs sluit vrijwel vlak

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs is woensdag na een kalme, richtingloze dag vrijwel vlak gesloten, maar de benzinefutures gingen hard omlaag.

De aprilfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot woensdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange 13 cent hoger op $92,76.

Uit cijfers van de Amerikaanse overheid bleek dat de voorraden ruwe olie in de VS vorige week minder dan verwacht zijn gestegen. De voorraden stegen met 1,1 miljoen vaten, waar werd uitgegaan van een stijging met 2,5 miljoen vaten.

De benzinevoorraden daalden daarnaast meer dan voorzien, met 1,9 miljoen. Uit de data bleek echter ook dat de voorraden in het noord-oosten van de VS, waar de future-contracten worden geleverd, zijn gestegen.

Door orkaan Sandy waren de benzinevoorraden in het noord-oosten eind november met 19,3% gedaald ten opzichte van een jaar eerder, maar sindsdien zijn ze weer sterk gestegen, deels door hogere importen. Inmiddels hebben ze het hoogste niveau sinds maart vorig jaar bereikt.

De bezinefutures daalden mede hierdoor met meer dan 4% tot het laagste niveau in een maand. Daarmee komt het verlies voor de week tot nu toe op meer dan 7%.

Door Ben Zwirs; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31-20-5715200; ben.zwirs@dowjones.com

voda 1 maart 2013 17:18

0

How much is oil recovery rate in Iran?

Mr Mohsen Khojastehmehr deputy oil minister of Iran has announced that since 2005 the country's oil reserves have increased by 110 billion barrels due to discovered new oilfields. Iran's in situ oil reserves stand at 800 billion barrels.

Mr Mohsen Khojastehmehr said that the country's recoverable oil reserves are estimated to be over 157 billion barrels. Comparing the figures for proven oil reserves and the recoverable oil reserves, it will be revealed that Iran's oil recovery factor is less than 20%.

In other words, Iran is able to extract just 20% of its oil reserves. Of course, the figure varies for different oilfields but the average figure will not exceed 20%.

According to Iran's Fifth Five Year Economic Development Plan, the oil recovery rate should be increased by 1% by implementation of enhanced oil recovery methods.

Oil officials said that Iran is currently experimenting different methods to raise oil recovery rate, so that 10 gas injection projects are underway across southern oil regions, one gas injection project is underway in the Darkhovin region and 5 water injection project is underway by the Iranian Offshore Oilfields Company. Moreover several horizontal and infill wells are reportedly drilled.

According to the reports, the Fourth Five Year Economic Development Plan had envisaged boosting the oil recovery rate by one percent but the goal was not materialized.

Recently, Karim Zobaidi, the official in charge of research and executive affairs for boosting oil recovery at Iran's Oil Ministry has said that the recovery rate has increased by 0.28% in line with the fifth development plan. This is while two years has passed from the five year plan and the increase in the recovery rate had not been announced in recent months.

Two years ago, Mr Hormoz Qalavand MD of the National Iranian Southern Oilfields Company announced that the oil recovery rate was 29% at that time. 10 methods were being practiced by Iran to boost the recovery percentage and that the most common method was gas injection. He also referred to other methods including carbon dioxide and nitrogen injection, but to date no report has been released in this regard.

On February 12, Mr Emad Ro'ayaee, the director for planning at the research center of boosting oil and gas recovery stated that after signing a contract with a number of technological centers and implementing dioxide injection projects into oil wells it is expected that oil recovery rate will rise by 8% to 14%. It means that the dioxide injection plan is currently in the study phase. In June 2012, Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi put the oil recovery rate at 25% and added that the figure should reach 38% to 40%.

According to OPEC report, Irans recoverable oil resourses stand at around 154 billion barrel. At present, some 80% of oilfields in Iran are in their second half of age and the country's oil production falls by over 300,000 barrels annually just due to low pressure at oilfields.

According to Iran's Oil Ministry studies, the country needs USD 70 billion to invest in projects for raising oil and gas recovery rate and extract USD 700 billion worth of oil and condensates from old fields. This goal seems to be impossible taking the bad economic situation in Iran into account.

Source - Trend.az

voda 4 maart 2013 17:07

0

Kingdom and UAE shift oil exports focus on Asia

A report by HSBC and Oxford Economics showed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will increasingly focus their oil exports on industrializing economies in Asia, in line with a transformation of international trade flows toward emerging markets.

Both Gulf countries will remain major oil producers during the next two decades although Saudi Arabia the world's largest oil producer will gradually diversify its export trade into other sectors where it is also competitive, such as plastics and chemicals. While maintaining petroleum exports, the UAE is expected to have the tenth largest growth in merchandise exports in the world between 2021 to 2030.

Emerging Asian economies where demand for raw materials is expected to rapidly expand also are expected to constitute the fastest source of export growth for Egypt as it sees petroleum overtake chemicals as its major export.

The International Energy Agency in its Oil Market Report for the month of February this year forecast that Chinese demand growth in 2013 remains roughly on par with that made in last month's Report, when it was revised higher to 4% from 3.2%. Both recent Chinese oil statistics and economic indicators remain supportive of this more bullish forecast. The overall Chinese apparent demand estimate for 2013 remains roughly unchanged from last month at 10 MBD.

Consumption averaged 9.6 MBD in 2012 up by 370 KBD, a modest 5 KBD up on last month's Report. Chinese apparent oil demand scaled new heights in November and December as growth tested double digit percentage point territory having struggled at an average of 2.9% earlier in the year.

Although a number of factors such as a change in excise duties and the commissioning of new refinery capacity may have distorted the estimate, it probably did not hurt that several key macroeconomic variables showed clear signs of improvement. GDP growth for example rose in Q4 2012 to 7.9% having slowed to 7.4% in Q3 2012.

Total Chinese exports also improved with YoY growth accelerating from November's relatively flat 2.9% expansion to a robust 25% gain in January. Forward looking indicators such as HSBC's Manufacturing PMI where any reading above 50 highlights a bias toward expanding sentiment underpinned the trend with a third consecutive expansionary month seen in January at 51.9 and a fifth successive rise.

For Japan, IEA report said preliminary estimates for December depicted 5.4 MBD of oil products being consumed, roughly unchanged on the year earlier but 265 KBD more than our month earlier estimate. A cold spell meant large quantities of fuel oil and crude oil were still required in a power sector shorn of most of its nuclear capacity. The forecast for 2013 is for a decline of 175 KBD to 4.6 MBD as economic momentum eases and the prior year's nuclear replacement demand falls out of the YoY equation.

Egypt is expected to maintain its key trading partners India, Saudi Arabia and the US while China rises to become a major market by 2030 as other traditionally important countries, such as Turkey and France, decline in significance.

Globally, the large emerging economies will drive a rebound in world trade and contribute the majority of gross domestic product growth in the coming decades, in contrast to developed nations, whose exports are expected to grow at a more subdued pace.

Export growth will be strongest from India, Vietnam and China which are all expected to post double-digit annual growth until at least 2020. Trade between emerging markets (so-called 'south-south' trade) will increase in importance as these economies grow wealthier, entailing a shift toward higher domestic demand.

Advanced economies currently conduct the majority of their trade with other developed economies, but they will see a growing share of their exports directed to the emerging markets. Faced with competition from lower-cost producers in the emerging markets, exports from the advanced economies will be increasingly focused in high technology sectors, where they can still command a competitive advantage.

Source - The Saudi Gazette

voda 4 maart 2013 17:08

0

Saudi Arabia to lower crude prices

Gulf News reported that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may lower official selling prices in April for all crude grades for its Asian buyers after the Dubai crude and DME Oman prices weakened.

The kingdom is considering reducing the OSPs for Arab Extra Light and Arab Light by 40 to 60 cents per barrel while Arab Medium and Arab Heavy may be cut by 80 to 90 cents.

Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting some 7 million barrels per day of crude bound for Asia.

Low demand because of refinery turnarounds pulled down not only the Dubai cash market, which dropped by nearly USD 4 in April trading but also narrowed the differentials in the spot market.

DME Oman’s differential to Dubai also steadily weakened during the month to trade nearly flat to slightly lower from a 50 to 70 cent per barrel premium at the start of the month.

A dealer at a trading house said that “As turnaround activity continues in May, Saudi Aramco will continue to make its OSPs attractive if it wants to maintain its market share. The extent of the cuts will be smaller than last month, though.”

Saudi had cut its March OSPs by more than a dollar across grades in anticipation of weak demand. A few refineries in China and Japan will stay shut through May for planned maintenance while some will resume by the end of April.

Complex refinery margins increased during February, to USD 8.50 per barrel to nearly USD 12 per barrel this week from less than USD 8 a month earlier. Product cracks, the profit or loss made by a refinery by processing crude into specific products, for fuel oil, weakened during the month which may prompt Saudi Arabia to further cut the price of its heavier grades.

Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest crude exporter, sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and calculations in the changing value of its oil over the previous month, considering yields and product prices.

Source - Gulf News

voda 5 maart 2013 16:43

0

OPEC Feb oil output up first rise since Oct - Survey

Reuters reported that OPEC crude oil output rose in February, the first monthly increase since October due to higher exports from Iraq and a slight increase in supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia.

Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was 30.32 million barrels per day up from a revised 30.21 million barrels per day in January, the survey of sources at oil companies, shipping data, OPEC and consultants found.

Source - Reuters

voda 5 maart 2013 21:59

0

Olieprijs sluit hoger; volgt aandelen in weg omhoog

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De olieprijs is dinsdag met winst geeindigd, en volgde daarmee de Amerikaanse aandelenmarkten in hun weg omhoog. Daarnaast bracht onzekerheid over de gezondheid van de Venezolaanse president Hugo Chavez het land, een grote leverancier van olie aan de VS, terug onder de aandacht.

De aprilfuture voor een vat ruwe olie sloot dinsdag op de New York Mercantile Exchange $0,70 of 0,8% hoger op $90,82.

Volgens analisten aarzelden handelaren om de oliefutures onder de grens van $90 te drukken na drie handelssessies waarop de olieprijs terrein verloor. De olieprijs werd tevens gesteund door een sterke start van de Amerikaanse beurzen.

"Vanuit een technisch oogpunt is de correctie wellicht voorbij", zegt Phil Flynn, analist bij Price Futures Group.

Kort na opening noteerde de S&P 500 index 0,7% hoger op 1.422,75. Aandelenmarkten in de VS dienen vaak als een barometer voor het bredere economische sentiment van 's werelds grootste olieconsument, waarbij beurs en olie gelijk oplopen.

Venezuela is al een tijd lang geen groot aandachtspunt meer binnen de oliemarkten, maar een verslechtering van de gezondheid van Chavez en berichten over de uitzetting van een Amerikaanse topfunctionaris hebben het land weer terug op de voorgrond gebracht.

"We hebben allemaal geprobeerd in te zien wat er in Venezuela zou gebeuren in de nasleep van zijn ondergang", zegt John Kilduff van Again Capital in New York. "Ik denk dat de consensus is dat de status quo gehandhaafd blijft, maar deze uitspraken zijn vrij dreigend en de zaken kunnen wellicht meer gedestabiliseerd zijn dan we dachten."

Dinsdag maakte het land tevens bekend twee medewerkers van de Amerikaanse ambassade uit te zetten vanwege samenzwering tegen de regering. Deze aankondiging volgde een dag op de bekendmaking dat Chavez een "nieuwe en ernstige infectie" had opgelopen volgend op een operatie in verband met kanker.

Hoewel Venezuela een grote olieleverancier is van de VS werden de ontwikkelingen in het land recent naar de achtergrond verdreven door zorgen over het nucleaire programma van Iran en politieke instabiliteit in het Midden-Oosten en Noord-Afrika.

Brent futures kregen ondertussen een impuls van het nog steeds stilliggen van het platform Cormorant Alpha. Het platform levert 100.000 vaten Brent olie per dag aan een export-terminal op de Shetland Eilanden.

Ondanks het herstel op dinsdag staan oliefutures nog steeds lager dan begin februari, vooral door zorgen over een zwakke vraag in de VS en in China, de tweede olieconsument op de wereld.

Deze zorgen bleven aanhouden doordat China zondag stappen aankondigde om de groei te beperken tot een beoogde 7,5%. Hoewel de groei e e n van de belangrijkste factoren is geweest voor de hoge olieprijzen in de afgelopen jaren, hebben veel analisten zorgen geuit dat de groei niet vol te houden is.

Ondertussen heeft de zogenaamde sequester - een pakket aan automatische bezuinigingen - geleid tot zorgen over een vertraging van de economische groei in de VS.

- Door Elco van Groningen; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31 20 571 52 00; patrick.buis@dowjones.com

AEX 910,72 +1,21 +0,13% 18:05


Germany40^	23.194,30	+0,49%
BEL 20	4.463,37	+0,07%
Europe50^	5.480,40	-0,16%
US30^	42.568,90	-1,00%
Nasd100^	20.055,70	-2,71%
US500^	5.738,15	-1,80%
Japan225^	36.907,20	-2,08%
Gold spot	2.909,61	-0,32%
EUR/USD	1,0781	-0,10%
WTI	66,18	-0,35%

Air France-KLM	+32,95%
AMG Critical ...	+18,29%
Alfen N.V.	+7,04%
AALBERTS NV	+6,74%
ArcelorMittal	+6,63%

BESI	-4,89%
Pharming	-4,88%
ASMI	-4,80%
Eurocommercia...	-3,71%
HEIJMANS KON	-3,25%

Koffiekamer « Terug naar discussie overzicht

Tot hoever stijgt de olieprijs?

Meedoen aan de discussie?

Direct naar Forum

Markt vandaag

Aandelenadviezen van IEX.nl

Stijgers

Dalers

Nieuws Forum meer