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Sanofi, Sanofi en nog eens Sanofi

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Koffiezondersuiker 3 februari 2009 20:30

quote:
TraderRon schreef:
En daarbij dan nog deze lijn.

"Acambis had a much less developed pipeline and smaller
marketshare in vaccines than Crucell"

Daarnaast zie je 2.5 miljard al steeds meer als een mogelijke prijs opduiken.
Nu nog een daadwerkelijk bod.

Er staat ook een verwachte kaspositie in die ze van Crucell verwachten. Dat zal dus uit de jaarcijfers duidelijk worden. Tot dan geen overname.

Koffiezondersuiker 3 februari 2009 20:31

quote:
TraderRon schreef:
En daarbij dan nog deze lijn.

"Acambis had a much less developed pipeline and smaller
marketshare in vaccines than Crucell"

Daarnaast zie je 2.5 miljard al steeds meer als een mogelijke prijs opduiken.
Nu nog een daadwerkelijk bod.

Als de cijfers tegenvallen dan gaat het feest (voorlopig) niet door. Dat is mijn opinie. En dan duikt de beurskoers ook weer naar beneden.

gogogoo 3 februari 2009 20:33

quote:
Sander040 schreef:
[quote=TraderRon]
En daarbij dan nog deze lijn.

"Acambis had a much less developed pipeline and smaller
marketshare in vaccines than Crucell"

Daarnaast zie je 2.5 miljard al steeds meer als een mogelijke prijs opduiken.
Nu nog een daadwerkelijk bod.
[/quote]

Er staat ook een verwachte kaspositie in die ze van Crucell verwachten. Dat zal dus uit de jaarcijfers duidelijk worden. Tot dan geen overname.

Die kaspositie kun je zelf ook wel bij banadering uitrekenen.
Waaruit trek je nu de conclusie dat er wel of niet een overname komt tot de jaarcijfers. Wiskundige beredenering?

TraderRon 3 februari 2009 20:34

Als ze een bod doen mogen ze gewoon in de boekjes kijken. Dat had Wyeth ook al gedaan en stond op een punt van rond te komen volgens de geruchten waarna ze teruggefloten werden door Pfizer.

Daarvoor hoeven ze echt niet op die jaarcijfers te wachten.

gogogoo 3 februari 2009 20:37

quote:
Sander040 schreef:
[quote=TraderRon]
En daarbij dan nog deze lijn.

"Acambis had a much less developed pipeline and smaller
marketshare in vaccines than Crucell"

Daarnaast zie je 2.5 miljard al steeds meer als een mogelijke prijs opduiken.
Nu nog een daadwerkelijk bod.
[/quote]

Als de cijfers tegenvallen dan gaat het feest (voorlopig) niet door. Dat is mijn opinie. En dan duikt de beurskoers ook weer naar beneden.

Ik zie alleen maar negatieve ondertoon in jouw postings. "Als dit tegenvalt dan gaat de koers omlaag", "We dalen in de US", etcetra. Wil je nog 2 aandelen bijkopen tegen een lagere koers?

Koffiezondersuiker 3 februari 2009 20:41

quote:
Sander040 schreef:
[quote=TraderRon]
En daarbij dan nog deze lijn.

"Acambis had a much less developed pipeline and smaller
marketshare in vaccines than Crucell"

Daarnaast zie je 2.5 miljard al steeds meer als een mogelijke prijs opduiken.
Nu nog een daadwerkelijk bod.
[/quote]

Er staat ook een verwachte kaspositie in die ze van Crucell verwachten. Dat zal dus uit de jaarcijfers duidelijk worden. Tot dan geen overname.

Nee, A: het staat er. Omdat die winst nog bescheiden en pril is, was het bod van Wyeth niet voor niets aan de schamele kant. Als de cijfers nu beter dan verwacht zijn of sterker..jaaaaa dan neemt ook de waarschijnlijkheid toe dat men -zij het voor minstens de KT- winstgevend is. Dan is kopen interessant!
Dit DENK ik.

B: bedrijfseconomische benadering: winstgevendheid betekent dat een onderneming intern kan financieren, geen beroep hoeft te doen op kapitaalaanvragen (EV/VV-financiering). Dit verhoogt de wpa en verdient daarmee de investering makkelijker terug.

Koffiezondersuiker 3 februari 2009 20:42

quote:
gogogoo schreef:
[quote=Sander040]
[quote=TraderRon]
En daarbij dan nog deze lijn.

"Acambis had a much less developed pipeline and smaller
marketshare in vaccines than Crucell"

Daarnaast zie je 2.5 miljard al steeds meer als een mogelijke prijs opduiken.
Nu nog een daadwerkelijk bod.
[/quote]

Als de cijfers tegenvallen dan gaat het feest (voorlopig) niet door. Dat is mijn opinie. En dan duikt de beurskoers ook weer naar beneden.
[/quote]

Ik zie alleen maar negatieve ondertoon in jouw postings. "Als dit tegenvalt dan gaat de koers omlaag", "We dalen in de US", etcetra. Wil je nog 2 aandelen bijkopen tegen een lagere koers?

Zo bedoel ik het niet, sorry: maar de verwachtingen (Van dit forum) zijn hoog. Dat het dan kan tegenvallen lijkt me behoorlijk. Ok, ik ken niet de ins-and outs v Crucell, dus misschien ben ik kort door de bocht. sorry dan.

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 20:45

Last Trade: 19.68
Trade Time: 2:42pm ET
Change: Up 0.64 (+3.36%)

Koffiezondersuiker 3 februari 2009 20:46

quote:
Blondie@home schreef:
Last Trade: 19.68
Trade Time: 2:42pm ET
Change: Up 0.64 (+3.36%)

$20 zou lekker zijn, staan we morgen op E15.50. Zou dat lukken?

TraderRon 3 februari 2009 20:48

quote:
Sander040 schreef:
Nee, A: het staat er. Omdat die winst nog bescheiden en pril is, was het bod van Wyeth niet voor niets aan de schamele kant. Als de cijfers nu beter dan verwacht zijn of sterker..jaaaaa dan neemt ook de waarschijnlijkheid toe dat men -zij het voor minstens de KT- winstgevend is. Dan is kopen interessant!
Dit DENK ik.

B: bedrijfseconomische benadering: winstgevendheid betekent dat een onderneming intern kan financieren, geen beroep hoeft te doen op kapitaalaanvragen (EV/VV-financiering). Dit verhoogt de wpa en verdient daarmee de investering makkelijker terug.

niemand weet wat het bod van Wyeth precies was enige dat gezegd is was een bod met een 2 ervoor.
Kan 2 miljard geweest zijn 21 euro, 29 euro.
Daarnaast betaal je in deze sector niet echt voor de huidge inkomsten veel bedrijven worden opgekocht voordat ze ooit winst maken. het is geen AEGON met een simpele inkomsten/uitgaven aftrek sommetje

Je betaald mede voor de potentie en de pipeline van een bedrijf en in het geval van crucell ook nog voor een productieplatform.

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 20:49

Nee ze zullen zo'n beetje op onze slotkoers sluiten. maar de trend is misschien wel gezet

flosz 3 februari 2009 20:49

quote:
Koerssurfer schreef:
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/08/5...

Conclusion & Action: We believe that a possible take over of the...etc.

Dit alles is van Marcel M. en Huub V. -> SNS
SNS Research Morning Note 08-01-09

Crucell (Buy): Crucell in take over talks with Wyeth
The facts: Yesterday after trading the company announced that it is in discussion with Wyeth to be acquired. The WSJ indicates a take over price of USD 1.35bn.
Our analysis: Crucell announced that the merger/acquisition talks are still in a preliminary stage. Wyeth is one of Crucell's key partners in the development of vaccines on its PER.C6 cell line. Since July 2007, Wyeth has an exclusive license on using Crucell's platform technology PER.C6 for the development of an undisclosed vaccine. In the area of vaccines, Wyeth is developing vaccines for viral and bacterial infections like HIV. Only yesterday, Wyeth's CEO indicated that the company is looking for acquisitions in the biotech sector. The pharmaceutical company has a cash position of more than USD 14bn. In 2007, Wyeth generated sales in total of USD 22.4bn.
Conclusion & Action: We believe that a possible take over of the company is surprising at the current stage. The company has enough resources and growth potential to continue independently. We therefore think that the suggested take over price of USD 1.35bn (USD 20.50 or EUR 15.20 per share) is only a first offer in negotiations and is clearly below our already conservative valuation of the company. Considering a take over bid, we believe that a price per share of EUR 22.50-25 would be more jusitified. In that case the full potential of its technologies, its products and pipeline is taken into account. Recent acquisitions of mid sized to small biotech companies in Europe by pharma companies showed take over premiums of 50-90%. Last year, vaccine producer Acambis was bought by Sanofi Aventis with a premium of 65% on its share price. Acambis had a much less developed pipeline and smaller marketshare in vaccines than Crucell. We expect Crucell to become profitable as of this year with an estimated cash level of around EUR 170m (USD 230m). We think that the take over talks also could trigger other pharmaceutical companies like Novartis and Sanofi Aventis to consider a talk over bid. Both companies are important partners of Crucell.

SNS Research Morning Note 26-01-09
Crucell (Buy): Take over talks with Wyeth discontinued
The facts: Crucell announced that Wyeth has withdrawn from discussions regarding a possible talk over of the company.
Our analysis: No additional news was issued by Crucell.
Conclusion & Action: For the short term the withdrawal of Wyeth from the take over discussion is negative for the share price. We expect the price to react negatively to this. Although there was no comment from both parties about the reason to stop the talks, we think that the value of a potential bid was the issue. A suggested offer of USD 1.35bn or EUR 15.50 per share was believed to be far too low. The possible take over of Wyeth by Pfizer might also be a factor, although we believe that these talk over talks already have been going on before Wyeth started its negotiations with Crucell. Fundamentally, we do not believe that this should affect the potential value of the company. Crucell is perfectly capable to continue independently. Its cashlevel is expected to be around EUR 170m by the end of 2008 and the company is expected to become profitable for the whole of 2009. Still, we definitely do not rule out a possible bid by another pharmaceutical company. It that respect both Crucell's strategic partners Novartis and Sanofi Aventis can be mentioned. Fact remains that Crucell is a take over candidate and that management is open for discussions, considering that the right price will be paid. We maintain our Buy rating.

Flash note 8 January 2009
Let the bidding begin
Yesterday, Crucell announced that is it preliminary talks with Wyeth about a take
over of the company. Wyeth is already an important partner of Crucell in the
development of vaccines using Crucell’s PER.C6 technology. It is believed that
Wyeth wants to offer USD1.35bn for the company. In our view this is only a first
offer that could trigger the interest of other pharmaceutical companies as well.
We believe a higher price to be validated.
As one of the few larger still independent vaccine companies left, Crucell is named
as a possible take over candidate for some time. However, the timing comes for us
as a surprise. The company is on the brink of becoming profitable and has a strong
balance sheet with an estimated cash level of more than EUR 170m. Its main
vaccine Quinvaxem already was awarded contracts by Unicef and other
supranational organisations of up to USD 500m till the end of 2009 and is
increasingly profitable. Also with the development of its vaccines against infectious
diseases like influenza, tuberculosis and malaria, the company has made good
progress. We therefore believe that Crucell is perfectly capable to continue
independently. This should give management a strong negotiation position.
Nevertheless, we think that with take over talks started, it will be difficult for Crucell
to maintain its independent position.
Wyeth is one of Crucell’s most important partners and also a global Top-5 player in
the vaccine market. The negotiations will probably attract the interest of other key
partners of Crucell as well, being Sanofi Aventis and Novartis. With both companies
Crucell has partnerships on important products in Crucell’s portfolio. Also Sanofi
and Novartis belong to the Top-5 vaccine players. Especially Sanofi should gain
from a take over of Crucell as it partners key products like Crucell’s influenza
vaccine and the antibody cocktail against rabies. Both products are developed on
Crucell’s unique human cell line PER.C6. This cell line is well on its way to become
an industry standard for the more efficient production of vaccines and proteins.
Next to that, all important vaccine players including Wyeth, Novartis and Sanofi
have said that they seek acquistions to strengthen their position in vaccines.


flosz 3 februari 2009 20:51

In all, we believe that with the take over talks with Wyeth, the bidding process for
Crucell only started. Considering prices that have been paid sofar for late stage
biotech companie and our underlying valuation of Crucell, we think that the
company has a considerably higher value than the suggested offer of USD 1.35bn.
We advice investors to hold on to their stock as a higher price is definitely feasible.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Product Stage Market Growth Price per Peak Royalty/ Discount Valuation R
patients patient Market share Margin factor EUR (m)
Quinvaxem Market 50 million 10% + 3.2 40% 35% 10% 300-350m
Dukoral Market 10 million 5% 10 10% 35% 10% 15-20m
Vivotif Market 10 million 5% 10 10% 35% 10% 15-20m
Inflexal Market 20 million + 5% 10 5% 30% 10% 20-25m
Hepaxal Market 20 million + 3% 15 5% 30% 10% 20-25m
Influenza vaccine Phase II 1 billion 15% 5 40% 10% 18% 350-400m
Ebola vaccine Phase I 4 million 2% 10 100% 50% 20% 20-25m
TB vaccine Phase I 50 million + 5% 5 25% 35% 18% 40-50m
Rabies antibody Phase II 50 million 5% 30 40% 20% 18% 80-100m
Malaria vaccine Phase I 100 million + 10% 4 25% 25% 20% 60-80m
HIV vaccine Phase I 100 million + 3% 500 20% 40% 25% 20-40m
PER C6 Technology EUR 10bn+ 10% 50-250k 15% 2.5% 350-400m
STAR Technology EUR 10bn+ 10% 250k 10% 2.5% 50-80m
Total 1340-1615m
Cash 170m
1510-1785m
www.iex.nl/forum/topic.asp?forum=228&...

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 20:52

Sanofi seen chasing mid-sized acquisitions
Tue Feb 3, 2009 8:01am EST

By Noelle Mennella

PARIS (Reuters) - Facing the loss of patents, Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) will have to makes acquisitions in 2009 to boost its growth, say analysts, who predict the French pharmaceuticals group will target medium-sized companies.

A mega-deal along the lines of Pfizer's (PFE.N) planned $68 billion purchase of Wyeth (WYE.N) is much less likely, at least for now, than an acquisition of something a bit smaller such as vaccine maker Crucell (CRCL.AS).

Bolt-on acquisitions would have a quicker and more visible impact than the restructuring of Sanofi's production sites or the reorganization of its research activities, two tasks which are also on new Chief Executive Chris Viehbacher's "to-do" list.

Viehbacher, a former GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) executive, took the helm of Sanofi in December after big shareholders Total (TOTF.PA) and L'Oreal (OREP.PA) pushed for a change at the top of the world's third-largest drugmaker to reinvigorate its performance.

He is expected to use M&A to accelerate the company's growth after recent moves by Sanofi to acquire vaccines maker Acambis and Czech generic drug group Zentiva (ZNTVsp.PR).

Last week, Viehbacher told staff Sanofi "had to grow", using the 4 billion euros ($5.1 billion) it generates annually in free cash flow.

He is likely to detail this strategy on February 11, the day Sanofi unveils full-year 2008 results.

Sanofi is in dire need of new blockbuster medicines that can help compensate for sales losses of older drugs due to generic competition and to new branded rivals.

"Chris Viehbacher's strategy is to redeploy the group's activity on growth segments and Sanofi's strong points are vaccines, emerging countries and (consumer) healthcare products. This will be made partly through acquisitions," Natixis analyst Philippe Lanone said.

Sanofi will likely target one or more medium-sized deals to re-energise sales growth, Lanone added.

Eric Le Berrigaud, analyst at Raymond James Euro Equities, ruled out a "mega-acquisition", such as Pfizer's move on Wyeth.

BRISTOL-MYERS TALK

There has been persistent speculation in the past that Sanofi might acquire its U.S. partner Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N), with which it markets the blockbuster blood-thinning drug Plavix.

But making a play for Bristol, which has market value of around $42 billion, would probably be a step too far for Viehbacher so soon after becoming CEO.

"Our belief is that Mr Viehbacher is too new to the job to make an immediate run for Bristol-Myers Squibb," Tim Anderson of Sanford Bernstein said.

In addition, with both Pfizer and Roche (ROG.VX) currently in the market for funding to buy Wyeth and Genentech (DNA.N) respectively, there might not be enough funds to go around to allow a third big pharma deal, he added.

Crucell, a Dutch vaccine maker with a market capitalization of around 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion), which had been in merger talks with Wyeth before the Pfizer deal, is considered by analysts a more manageable target.

"Sanofi would be a natural acquirer of the company (Crucell), all the more so now that everyone is trying to grow through vaccines, where few targets are available," Le Berrigaud said.

Another analyst, who asked not to be identified, said Viehbacher would do at Sanofi "what he did at GSK -- acquire small and medium biotechnology companies," with market capitalizations of up to 5 billion euros.

"Banks should easily go along with that," the analyst added.

Last week, Viehbacher told employees he was looking into "ways of diversifying the group in terms of OTC (over the counter) medicines, vaccines and perhaps other healthcare products." He also said he wanted to expand oncology activities and boost the group's biotech business.

But Sanofi will probably have to make choices in its portfolio of products and this may lead to a reduction in the number of its production sites, analysts said.

"Cost cutting is not officially on the agenda but Sanofi will accentuate it. Chris Viehbacher will not say it but he will do it as soon as he has renewed the group's management ... he has no other choice," said one analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity.

(Additional reporting by Ben Hirschler in London; writing by Marie Maitre; Editing by Hans Peters)

www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/i...

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 21:39

sec.edgar-online.com/sanofi-aventis/2...

Misschien dat iemand hier wat aan heeft? Volgens mij moet je registreren voor deze gegevens maar met de link lukt het ook.

Voor iemand die zich snel wil verdiepen in Sanofi-aventis die zal daar genoeg informatie vinden.

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 21:45

He (viehbacher of Sanofi) is likely to detail this strategy on February 11, the day Sanofi unveils full-year 2008 results.

Als hij dan toch daar iets wil zeggen dan kan hij beter voor die datum iets doen. Komt net even energieker over.

Mocht hij Crucell noemen, dan is dat leuk.
Als hij een bod doet, dan hoop ik wel dat niemand daar op ingaat. Het blijft IMHO voor Crucell aandeelhouders nog een paar jaar te vroeg.

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 23:14

FEBRUARY 3, 2009, 3:55 P.M. ET (WSJ)

Those that appear open to large combinations include Merck & Co. (MRK) and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), although not necessarily with each other. Merck Chief Executive Richard Clark said Tuesday that he was open to "the entire spectrum" of transactions, including a large-scale deal. Clark previously expressed interest in acquiring a biotechnology company

Nu is de vraag: Merck & Co i.p.v.Sanofi?

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 23:47

Pharmaceutical Companies - Cash Available*:

Merck & Co: ~$ 10.00 billion

Net iets meer op de plank liggen dan Sanofi ....

[verwijderd] 3 februari 2009 23:54

quote:
sempre avanti schreef:
Pharmaceutical Companies - Cash Available*:

Merck & Co: ~$ 10.00 billion

Net iets meer op de plank liggen dan Sanofi ....

Wie is de volgende in jouw glazen bol na Merck.
Leuk voor een pooltje.

[verwijderd] 4 februari 2009 19:38

European Commission Clears Acquisition of Zentiva NV by sanofi-aventis
04 Feb 2009

- Offer of CZK 1150 in Cash per Share Represents a 25.5% Premium to April 30, 2008 Closing Share Price and Has Been Recommended by Zentiva Board of Directors -

- Zentiva Shareholders Have Until February 20, 2009 To Tender Shares -
Paris, France

Paris, France – February 4, 2009 - Sanofi-aventis announced today that the European Commission has granted competition law clearance to the proposed acquisition of Zentiva NV (Zentiva) by sanofi-aventis Europe.
Sanofi-aventis welcomes this decision, which will allow the Offer to proceed. The offer expiration date is maintained at February 20, 2009.
The Offer remains subject to a minimum tender condition of 10,339,203 shares, which is designed to ensure that after the Offer sanofi-aventis Europe would hold more than half of Zentiva’s fully diluted share capital and voting rights.
If the Offer is successful, sanofi-aventis Europe intends to terminate Zentiva’s listings on the London and Prague Stock Exchanges as soon as possible. Furthermore, subject to the necessary threshold being reached, sanofi-aventis Europe expects to initiate the statutory squeeze-out procedure contemplated by the Dutch Civil Code in order to acquire all shares held by minority shareholders.
Sanofi-aventis is committed to the expansion of its presence into emerging markets that are characterised by high growth, low and medium disposable income and affordable pharmaceutical products. Sanofi-aventis believes that Zentiva will constitute an exceptional opportunity to accelerate this strategy and intends that Zentiva becomes a platform for further growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets.
In connection with the European Commission competition law clearance, sanofi-aventis has agreed to divest products from both groups in a limited number of CEE markets. The divested products collectively generate annual sales of approximately €18 million in 2007, an amount which is less than 3% of Zentiva’s consolidated sales for that year.
Sanofi-aventis Europe has made certain commitments to Zentiva with respect to the treatment of Zentiva employees. The parties intend for Mr Jiri Michal to continue as CEO and executive director of Zentiva following the closing of the Offer.

...

en.sanofi-aventis.com/binaries/200902...

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