part VIII.
August 22, 2008, Page 8 Advice and Information for Traders and Investors
The hurried agreement with Poland in the middle of the
Georgian crisis has by now probably convinced Russia
that the missiles are aimed at Russia and not Iran.
Whether true or not, the perception means that Russia
will react strongly. Granted there are only five months
left in this administration, McCain has promised a
continuation of this policy and Obama has recommended
sending $1-billion to Georgia, so all TDLrs are urged to
do whatever they can to keep the cause and effect
crucially clear. We understand that the newest Time
magazine cover is "How to Stop a New Cold War," and
we urge all TDLrs to write or e-mail Time to recommend
that NATO not build missile bases on Russia’s borders
until peaceful negotiations have been completed. Why
not build them where Putin recommended, in Azerbijan
or Turkey, aimed at Iran, if at all? Anger and war can be
a shout to the deaf. At this late stage, since Russia
suspects that Georgia will eventually accept NATO’s
missile bases, we doubt Russia will permanently abandon
Ossetia and Abkhazia, so one possible solution is to make
both enclaves independent and also offer a guarantee that
an independent Georgia will not carry missiles. Or, there
might be a new Cold War, possibly with grave
consequences.
A new front will open around the North Pole, as the ice
melts, for its oil and gas reserves, and America is
woefully unprepared, with only one heavy icebreaker in
service, the inadequate Polar Sea. Russia has around 14,
seven of which are modern and nuclear powered,
dominating the area. It takes 8 to 10 years to build even
one such icebreaker, and America is dozing at the wheel,
yet another opportunity that should be publicly debated.
In our view, the risk of war is greater than at any time
since John F Kennedy kicked Soviet missiles out of Cuba
in 1962. Two iron-willed men, Bush and Putin, are on a
collision course, probably over Ukraine next. We have no
other Russian recommendations except Norilsk in our
Supervised Lists because we think a better buying
opportunity might be ahead. America is at odds with key
oil producers Iran, Venezuela and Russia, so the risk of
an oil crisis is rising, and America is energy naked,
without nuclear-power plants as backups. A financial
crisis might bring a sudden spike in interest rates, so this
is the time for TDLrs to minimize debt, especially credit
cards.
Large cities would be the first war targets worldwide
so, while we see no immediate emergency, all TDLrs are
advised to tentatively begin their own "Plan B" for a
refuge outside a large city as we wait for political
developments. America will have a new president in five
months and, since we are skeptical about promises made
during political campaigns, we are unclear what the next
president might do. We cannot imagine Israel tolerating
Iran having a nuclear weapon and a delivery system, so
the risk of war is in the air. We are not yet ready to signal
emergency procedures, but this is the time to begin
thinking about alternatives. As with nations, that argument
with your spouse that you won...it’s not over yet.
1. As Georgia and Russia Headed for a Clash, the US Missed the
Signals. Five months ago, President Mikhail Saakashvili of
Georgia, long a darling of this city’s [Washington, DC]
diplomatic dinner party circuit, came to town to push for
America to muscle his tiny country of four million into NATO.
Mr Saakashvili, brash and hyperkinetic, urged the West not to
appease Russia by rejecting his country’s NATO ambitions. Mr
Bush promised him to push hard for Georgia’s acceptance into
NATO. Three weeks later, Mr Bush went to the Black Sea resort
of Sochi, at the invitation of President Vladimir V Putin of
Russia. There, he received a message: the Russian president
warned that the push to offer Ukraine and Georgia NATO
membership was crossing Russia’s "red lines." It was one of the
many moments when the United States seemed to have missed –
or gambled it could manage – the depth of Russia’s anger and the
resolve of the Georgian president to provoke the Russians. The
story of how a 16-year, low-grade conflict over who should rule
two small, mountainous regions in the Caucasus erupted into the
most serious post-Cold War showdown between the United
States and Russia is one of miscalculation, missed signals and
overreaching. Vice-President Dick Cheney saw Georgia as a role