TW82 schreef op 5 november 2019 10:56:
Uit een artikel op Bloomberg.com. Tja, voor wat het waard is dan, want zeker weet je het nooit en 'risk happens fast', maar desalniettemin toch niet de meest gunstige voortekenen voor FT voorlopig.
"Right on cue, hedge funds are also shorting the VIX at a record clip as the underlying gauge sinks to its lowest since July.
That’s because the futures curve for Wall Street’s fear gauge is forming an appealingly steep shape -- reflecting higher uncertainty about the medium-term outlook for volatility relative to the near term. It’s the opposite of an inverted curve that has preceded sell-offs in the past and which is seen by many as a harbinger of doom.
Another volatility-based measure -- S&P 500 skew -- is flashing the all-clear for bulls. The measure of the price for downside protection has slipped since the start of the month, indicating lower hedging demand.
“Put-call skew has collapsed from unusually high levels and continues to be close to year-to-date lows,” Michael Purves of Tallbacken Capital wrote in a note last week. “Seasonal strength for equities against a backdrop of a relatively stable rates backdrop appears to be a recipe for a sprint in equities (and a lower VIX) into year’s end.”