private schreef op 3 oktober 2015 13:25:
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Yes I think you are on the right track, there are many unknown factors that affect each other.
Rising price of MT stock yesterday, the same in other metal companies, but if you look at the stock basket over the last half year, then there have been small corrections upward and long downward corrections.
Is it the low point right now? no one knows the truth
Not because I want to beat the devil on the wall, but the underlying factors as China weigh much, and there are some drivers as import duties, European and US Growth and interest rate.
seekingalpha.com/article/3548186-us-s...Duty of China, does not help the factor that there is too much iron ore in the market, there are too many steel Companies in the World, and specially China, 30 procent of china steel Companies must be closed, if you close 30 procent, China Growth will fall still more, and so on.
The oil and metals is very connected by price.
But the fact is that the prices of steel, oil, iron ore, etc. are too low, to last in the long run.
This will destabilize the world
Opec countries can not afford the price war they lead just now where they try to press US shale oil. The same you see with Rio Tinto as just now pumps all the iron ore they can out in the market, because they have low breakeven on their production costs.
It's about market share, you can close the Companies with high breakeven.
So MT must cut Down where they can cut Down, it is a war of breakeven.
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-...and
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-...