TiGenix Achieves First Ever Success In Allogeneic Stem Cell Phase 3 Trial
Aug. 27, 2015 11:07 AM ET | 16 comments | About: Tigenix Sa (TGXSF), Includes: CAPR, CLBS, CYAD, GLPG, GRFS, GSK, JNJ, MEOBF, NVS, PHG, SSH, VCEL
Disclosure: I am/we are long TGXSF, SSH. (More...)
Summary
TiGenix's pivotal Phase 3 trial in Europe met its primary endpoint in an indication targeting a potential $2 billion orphan market.
As predicted in my previous article, owing to solid trial design and sound science, this is the first Phase 3 success in an allogeneic stem cell trial worldwide.
Following the FDA's agreement on the company's proposed SPA, the way is now widely open for a U.S. approval as well.
TiGenix has also expanded its pipeline of product candidates for a various range of major diseases (RA, sepsis...) by acquiring a Phase 2 stem cell treatment for acute myocardial infarction.
Despite clear clinical successes and strong management, the company is still deeply undervalued and a short-term upside of 150% is anticipated, with a probable NASDAQ IPO in sight.
TiGenix (OTC:TGXSF) - listed on Euronext Brussels under ticker "TIG" - is a leading European stem cell company. The small-cap biotech has already one product on the market (ChondroCelect, an autologous chondrocyte implantation or ACI) and just announced positive Phase 3 efficacy results from its allogeneic adipose-derived stem cell treatment for Crohn's disease fistulas, Cx601. The therapy met its primary endpoint, confirming its strong potential in a $2 billion orphan market. I have extensively written before on the tremendous opportunity presented by this under-the-radar, little-known pioneering biotech with great ambitions - see a full investment thesis here and my focus article on Cx601 here - detailing why I predicted that TiGenix's Phase 3 trial would likely be a success.
Not only does Cx601 become the first ever recorded successful allogeneic "off-the-shelf" stem cell therapy to go through a large, randomized controlled trial, but also it is first and foremost a solid product which answers an unmet therapeutic need in a highly debilitating condition and brings hope to thousands of patients across the world. A single injection of Cx601 in highly refractory Crohn's disease patients with complex perianal fistulas was able to completely cure about 50% of all patients, whereas even the more advanced medical options like biologics (or anti-TNF alpha drugs) have poor efficacy rates (about 23%) and potentially dangerous side effects. In comparison with conventional treatments, Cx601's safety profile proved to be stellar with less treatment-related adverse events observed in the Cx601 treatment arm than in the placebo arm.
In brief, what this means is that about one out of two patients treated with Cx601 will be spared the otherwise unavoidable surgical procedure needed to close their fistulas, which is the only option available to about four out of five patients today - surgery is a risky and painful procedure to which many doctors are reluctant, due to the difficulty of achieving sustainable results and patients' satisfaction since the rate of relapse is still very high and the outcome variable (including risks of anal incontinence). Therefore, with a much better safety profile and a more reliable closure rate than any other non-surgical option, the company's treatment becomes a significant, life-changing option, which makes it very likely that the acceptance of the product will be strong within the medical community and capture a significant portion of the target population, which represents about 120,000 new patients each year in the U.S. and Europe alone (see my previous focus article for more details).
Cx601 is now a mostly de-risked and deeply undervalued asset...
With this in mind and according to pricing estimations - based on Remicade which is priced around $20k per year even with less-than-impressive results and a questionable safety profile - it is estimated that peak sales of Cx601 could reach over $670 million per year with reasonable market share assumptions (see Table 1 below).
Besides, TiGenix confirmed recently that it has obtained the FDA's endorsement on a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA), clearing the pathway to start a single pivotal Phase 3 trial that could lead to U.S. market approval - an explicit acknowledgement by the FDA of the quality of the scientific data produced by TiGenix so far. The company describes the primary endpoint of its upcoming U.S. Phase 3 trial as "in line with the one for the European Phase 3 trial", meaning that the clear clinical success of the European trial has very high chances of being replicated in the U.S. trial, thus opening the way for a likely U.S. approval of Cx601 as well.
In terms of timing to market and thanks to its first Phase 3 success, Cx601 could be launched on the European market by early 2017 (filing is already in preparation) and could reach the U.S. by 2020 after completion of the U.S. trial.