Samenvatting van Michael Novod analist bij Nordea Bank :
Dara nearing game-changing solid tumour news
In the past week, we have met with Genmab in San Francisco and two
of the company's partners, JnJ and BioNTech. We remain impressed by
JnJ's efforts on Darzalex, securing best-in-class sales uptake and
expanding the potential indication span for the drug. JnJ recently
partnered with BMS to combine Darzalex with Opdivo in MM and a
range of solid tumours for which the first trial has already started in
colorectal cancer. Based on our meeting with JnJ, we believe Darzalex
could become one of the backbone drugs in the company's immunooncology
strategy and solid tumour potential for Darzalex could be
game-changing (likely USD 5bn or more). This is not yet reflected in
our Genmab valuation. The first solid tumour data will likely come in
early 2018. We raise our target price to DKK 1,595 (1,550) based on
the stronger USD, while our estimate changes reflect a shift in
milestones between 2016 and 2017.
Darzalex could become a backbone of JnJ's IO strategy
We met with JnJ and Genmab this week. Besides noting the impressive
uptake of Darzalex in MM, the focus of the meetings was on the potential
of Darzalex outside MM, particularly in solid tumours. JnJ and BMS have
partnered on this, and Darzalex will initially be tested in five indications.
The ph I/II study in colorectal cancer has already started. Based on our
discussions with JnJ, we believe that Darzalex is now considered a true
immuno-oncology (IO) drug and that it could become one of the backbone
drugs in JnJ's IO strategy. If Darzalex works in combination with
checkpoint inhibitors in solid tumours, it could represent potential of USD
5bn or more (not currently in our valuation). Our USD 9-10bn peak sales
estimate for Darzalex is worth DKK ~1,300 per share in our model.
Darzalex sales could reach USD ~1.5bn in 2017E
We model USD 560m for in-market Darzalex sales in 2017E, and based on
recent meetings with Genmab management, this week and just after ASH,
we believe the second-line label expansion and the ASH conference has
secured an additional boost for uptake/growth. In our view, December will
set a new monthly sales record and we easily see almost USD 1.5bn in
global in-market sales for 2017, yielding royalties to Genmab of DKK
~1.3bn (versus DKK ~450m in 2016). Besides the strong sales uptake, we
expect supportive news for lymphoma data, 1L MM data, Tisotumab
Vedotin data and the initiation of multiple new Darzalex trials in 2017.
Ik hoop dat dit jullie door Blue Monday heen sleept !
18 januari Darzalex sales cijfers ... mijn schatting : $ 83 miljoen .
gr Sheriff Grover