Lower supply and additional logistics disruptions have resulted in a significantly tighter balance in the market which is supportive of higher US nitrogen prices ahead of the start of the spring season. This is particularly the case for UAN where despite prices having risen by c.70% from trough levels, there is further room to increase as the ratio of corn to UAN prices remains close to decade lows and UAN continues to be at a discount to urea on a nitrogen tonne basis.
The outlook for our methanol end markets has also continued to improve. Spot methanol prices have almost tripled since reaching trough cycle levels in 2020 and the market has remained tight so far in 2021. High-cost methanol capacity has been shutting down and natural gas shortages in Iran, Trinidad and China have tightened global methanol supplies, which combined with delayed new supply continues to support prices. Demand from Methanol-to Olefins (MTO) plants in China was strong in 2020 and MTO utilization rates continue to be high on the back of healthy economics. Downstream demand is expected to continue to improve as the global economy and industrial activity recovers.
Interest savings to materialize in 2021
This year, we will also start to see the benefits from our recent refinancing activities. We expect the Q4 2020 bond offering and the refinancing at Fertiglobe to generate cash interest savings of more than $32 million per year, as we lowered our weighted average cost of gross debt by c.60 bps to below 4.5%. In February, we also redeemed c.$147 million of bonds at IFCo, which will result in additional recurring cash interest savings and a reduction in subsidiary debt consistent with our strategy. We will continue to evaluate opportunities to achieve similar objectives and further simplify our capital structure.
Green focus
Finally, we are pleased that we made further progress in our effort to grow our green portfolio and anticipate new growth opportunities for OCI.
Ammonia and methanol are some of the best-positioned products to create carbon-free food, fuels and industrial feedstocks and therefore can help decarbonize a wide range of end markets and industries. The use of ammonia or methanol as a shipping fuel is particularly promising as these products are among the best-placed alternatives to help this sector decarbonize in a cost-effective way.
We have therefore made it a top priority to make ammonia an established fuel for shipping, and we are also working on accelerating the transition to producing blue and green ammonia at our plants. OCI is one of the largest producers and traders of ammonia globally, with our ammonia plants and storage tanks located directly on the major global shipping routes, and in regions with access to ample and cost-effective solar and wind resources.
We are also pleased that we recently reached another key milestone in growing our biofuels business as we started supplying Essar Oil, strengthening our market-leading position in renewable methanol. We will continue to roll out bio-methanol as a fuel, which helps reduce the carbon intensity of road transportation fuels in a highly efficient way and we also see many opportunities in other industrial applications where this versatile product can be used.
We intend to announce our 2030 scope 1 and 2 emission reduction targets at our upcoming ESG Investor Seminar scheduled to take place March 8, 2021. We believe we can achieve these targets based on a differentiated strategy focused on value creation and capital discipline, that will help enable the world transition to the hydrogen economy.
We will outline how we will accelerate our operational excellence program which we expect to yield tangible shorter-term returns and how we can grow our existing portfolio of lower-carbon products. We will also detail value-enhancing strategic initiatives focused on low- or no-carbon technologies, where we, together with our partners and customers, can leverage our unique geographical and product footprint to capture exciting growth opportunities.”
Outlook
Nitrogen
The outlook for our nitrogen fertilizer portfolio is considerably more favourable on higher global pricing and we maintain a solid order book:
Global nitrogen demand is supported by rising corn prices driven by higher corn imports from China.
Demand in all our key markets is forecast to remain robust in 2021 on improved farm economics and a recovery in industrial consumption.
We expect a favourable spring application season in our core US Midwest market with attractive affordability levels for farmers on the back of rising crop prices.
Our nitrates order book in Europe is healthy going into the second quarter of 2021.
Higher fertilizer demand in China on strong domestic crop prices combined with a recovery in industrial urea consumption, is expected to likely limit urea exports from China in 2021 to a lower level than in 2020.
Industrial nitrogen markets remained relatively subdued in Q4 2020 due to GDP/industrial activity slowdown, but continue to recover and have shown resilience to ongoing lockdowns:
Ammonia prices lagged the increases in urea prices, but have started to benefit from higher feedstock prices, a recovery in industrial markets, high-cost capacity shutdowns, and gas supply curtailments in Trinidad and China.
OCI’s DEF sales in the US reached record levels in Q4 2020 which combined with the higher urea sales prices in the US supports an improving trend going into 2021.
Melamine prices increased by 15% in the first quarter of 2021, driven by reduced supply in the fourth quarter and solid demand in our core European markets continuing into 2021 driving a tighter market.
Methanol
Following a solid performance of OCI Beaumont and BioMCN in H2 2020, normalization of production and improved onstream efficiency is expected to drive volume growth in the methanol segments in 2021, in turn driving earnings growth for the methanol group.
The outlook for our methanol end markets has also strengthened:
US methanol spot prices have almost tripled since reaching a bottom below $150 / ton in June.
Rising utilization rates of MTO plants in China on the back of healthy MTO economics versus naphtha crackers have been a key driver of a rebound in methanol demand.
The outlook for downstream demand has improved, with fuel consumption picking up, and a gradual return of global industrial and construction activity.
Resurgence in Covid-19 cases particularly for Europe and the US, adds some downside risk for methanol demand if these economies see another downturn, but the supply and demand balance has remained tight so far in 2021.
Gas Markets
The recent increase in feedstock prices has driven up marginal costs of production and supports selling prices for all our products. It also benefits OCI as one of the most efficient producers in the US and Europe and strengthens Fertiglobe’s significant competitive advantage as a result of its fixed gas supply agreements.
A conference call for investors and analysts will be hosted on Thursday 25th February 2021 at 4:00 PM CET (3:00 PM GMT, 10:00 AM ET) by Ahmed El-Hoshy, Chief Executive Officer and Hassan Badrawi, Chief Financial Officer.