Koerstechnisch lijkt er veel ruimte boven de >13. Ca rond de 15 ligt weer een weerstand/steun in het verleden. We zullen het meemaken. Toch hoop ik nog steeds op consolidatie binnen de sector. En het toekomstperspectief van (bio)methanol is veelbelovend. Maar dit is wel echt lange termijn.
Voor Q2 wat aanknooppunten uit de Conference Call:
+ Debottlenecking van Sorfert in Q1 afgerond, dus naar verwachting draait deze in Q2 weer volop.
+ Er waren nog enkele turnaround vooruit gehaald naar Q1, wat impact heeft gehad op Q1 cijfers: "We mentioned in our last quarterly update call that we accelerated turnaround and completed it in the first half of January for ammonia and the second half of February for methanol. Both plants have performed consistently since then. And I can confirm that Beaumont continues to run steadily, close to its max potential, with an average of 113% of the pre-debottlenecking design capacity in April"
+ Production volumes in the Netherlands at BioMCN were relatively steady as one of the two lines within an extended turnaround. But this was offset by additional volumes from the recently refurbished second line, which has been ramping up. We expect to see the full benefits of both lines from the third quarter onwards.
+ Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. Free cash flow before growth CapEx during the quarter was negative $85 million. This reflects mainly an increase in net working capital of $125 million, which is a repeat feature during this time of the season – or this year, mostly driven by higher trade receivables. This naturally translates into cash as we get into the second quarter and some potential spillover into the third quarter as well.
+ Absolutely. So on the first question, Tom, with regards to the movement this year, we’ve seen a lot of it coming actually in Q2 versus Q1. We’ve had a record April for ammonia movement in the Midwest, and then we expect to see and has started seeing because of the acceleration of crop planting, very strong urea and UAN demand as well.
+/- In Europe, we are seeing very strong demand for May and June deliveries in our core Northern European nitrate markets. So we expect a healthy performance of our European operations in Q2 as well and a lower inventory level starting into the softer summer months. Our export platform, Fertiglobe, is sold out until mid-June, and we are benefiting from ongoing demand in major importing regions, and we have been selling significant volumes into Southern Europe, East Africa, India and Australia to mention a few, including some new markets for us. So all in all, we feel good about the current season and the current outlook for our fertilizer business, albeit with some weakness on the industrial side of nitrogen projects, be it DEF or melamine.
+ in Q1, we had not gotten the physical benefit of that ("current low gas price") because of some of the inventory that was sold in Q1 was at the higher gas prices of Q4. So leave that $100 million number reflects balance of the year benefits mainly when compared to the prior year. And also, as you recall, the gas prices in Q1 still were favorable 2020 relative to 2019.
+/- We have limited visibility on the length and full economic impact of COVID-19 crisis, but looking forward oil prices, we believe the second half of the year should start seeing some recovery in methanol pricing. But I want to reiterate that a large proportion of our methanol production is already committed to end users that need the product or they’re down in production and that we are a bit insulated due to our advantageous geographical locations close to our customers.
/- Zoals gelezen in het rapport van MS heeft Natgasoline in april een maand stil gelegen. We achieved higher volumes at Natgasoline in Q1 year-over-year, even though the planned utilization rate was impacted by several setbacks during the quarter. Repairs were conducted and the plant is now currently running again.