ketchup of catch-up schreef op 29 september 2019 09:27:
" changes to forecasts "
we have made significant adjustments to our forecasts, as we have now accounted for the weaker growth outlook for 2020-21e
a further shift in investments from capex to opex blurs the results
as well as accelerated amortisation of intagibles
revenue forecast by segment
-automotive: 2018/245m - 2019/273m - 2020/278m - 2021/322m ( 10% CAGR)
- enterprise: 2018/127.2m - 2019/160m -2020/168m - 2021/176.4m ( 12% CAGR)
- Loc Tech: 2018/372.3m - 2019/433.1m - 2020/446m - 2021/498.4m (10% CAGR)
- consumer: 2018/314.5m - 2019/267m - 2020/178.4m - 2021/133.8m ( -25% CAGR)
Group: 2018/786.8m - 2019/700m - 2020/624.4m - 2021/632.2m
conclusion:
2020 going to be a soft year for TT, with no material new contracts
2021 we shud see an acceleration as a new contract from a US OEM ramps up
2024 should see a big acceleration
TT's market share has increased in recent years and the company is confident
we believe there is scope to gain additional share
we also believe TT has improved its competitiveness versus GooGle with an in-dash infotainment concept and improved user experience
ST : neutral
LT : Bullish
with surplus cash buying its own stock into weakness for a buyback program makes sense
in our trading model we hv not assumed any buybacks as yet
there is likely to be news on this ( AMG april)
BuyBack wud support EPS growth, wud reduce the free-float and wud further affect the liquidity on shares
as for 2019 def rev will be arnd 60m
our model still assumes much higher level
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blijft toch bijzonder hoe HG telkenmale de handrem aantrekt op het aandeel door de cijfers uiterst behoudend en ronduit laf te presenteren
goed voor nu een zegen als ze met het inkoop programma starten voor 2020
voelt aan voor de mid tot lange termijn als low risk met mogelijk high returns, ook bij vals spel
korte termijn neutraal en waarschijnlijk in een range van 10 om 12 euro in afwachting wat ze met de surplus cash gaan doen.