SNSN schreef op 16 april 2018 19:48:
[...]
Guys, just stick to the facts and objective stuff. Forget all rubbish published, as it’s just useless. Take a look at the facts (may really help):
1. First of all, from the
Q4-2017 report one can read that the
‘net booking’ is 2.935 (this is just a lower limit for the next quarter ‘net sales’ – just read definitions).
Thus, very trivial calculations show that the Q1-2018 report just must show the following figures:
'net sales’ = ~3.12 and EPS = ~1.852. However, in the same
Q4-2017 report the company (just all of a sudden) ‘expects’ the
‘net sales’ in Q1-2018 just on the level of
~2.2,
which is much lower than 2.935 that is sitting in the
‘net booking’ reported in Q4-2017. So, what’s the problem, why such a difference? If briefly, there could be just a few explanations:
a) people providing the company ex-ante ‘forecasts’ just are NOT familiar with the company ex-post ‘accounting’ (would be very strange);
b) the company is just manipulating with its ‘reporting/accounting’;
c)
people providing ‘forecast’ were actually aware of 'possibility' that the units/products accounted for to be sold & reported in Q1-2018, were actually reported as ‘sold out’ in Q4-2017 (just read point ‘a’ above).
were just not aware that the units/products accounted for to be sold in Q1-2018, were actually reported as ‘sold out’ in Q4-2017 (just read point ‘a’ above).
Thus, the company just ‘obliged’ to report for
Q1-2018 - the
'net sales’ = ~3.12 and EPS = ~1.85, which is already ‘priced in’ on the level of
~150. Otherwise, the stock may react correspondingly.
Actually the ‘forecast & accounting’ manipulation by the company is very close to that one we could see in Q3-2017. So far, one shouldn't be surprised if current scenario would remind that one from Q3-2017.
Good luck.
PS. Of course, the current scenario may be different (from that one of Q3-2017) if the company would be still able AGAIN to ‘transfer’ the units (accounted for to be ‘sold in Q2-2018’) would be actually reported as those ones ‘sold in Q1-2018’. But anyway, such type of ‘accounting-reporting excursuses’ (info manipulations) would need to end/stop some time (at some time there would be just not enough 'units' to manipulate with).
PSS. There will be still a lot of volatility. Just don't be ridicules, stick to objective stuff.