As promised, for those interested:
1. One of the most important drivers after rights issue was “cashing” on “paper bonuses” with extra objectives to increase the prob. for a “second bonus” for some parties (could be possible if prices would drop under ~1.5-1.4).
The prices had to fall as there were too many shares (3 times) and almost all parties which bought between 2.5 and 2.75 (that is ~ 1.56-1.62 in “new shares”) saw a good fit cashing in bonuses directly at ~1.75-1.65 (to check - use prices/volume and timing/distribution).
To cash bonuses “properly” (at high volume) the prices had to be stabilised within the range ~1.75-1.65 for some time …. – i.e. until main parties could sell properly. So, “Daily Mail” rumours were exactly “in time” (to support prices). And when “cashing bonuses” was completed by “main parties” there was a call for Nomura’s (fake) advice – “main parties” were going for “second round” bonuses….
To get a high prob. for “second bonuses” (after the first objective was completed) the prices had to fall lower than ~1.50, or as lower as possible, …. certainly on account of voluntarily losses, shorters and inefficient trades....(remember, nobody had shares under 1.50 at that time).
The following factors led to, so-called, “risk-free” trading strategy (after May 15):
a) the T&C (1:2 rights, 1.06), prices/volume distributions from the Feb., 20 till Apr., 26 (horizontal trend-channel ~2.5 – 3.0 with almost symmetric pdf),
b) the average volume between ~2.5-2.75 (1.56-1.62 measured by new shares) within the trend channel,
c) price level at “rump offering” 1.75 - that is ~3.13 in terms of old shares, and
d) hard resistance at ~3.0 (for old shares)
2. The main shareholder has little to do with the price fall in the end of May. The objective to rise prob. for "secon bonuses" for some parties did the job... , and "shortes" certainly recognized the trend fast...
3. Some parties are still trying to push down – prospects for “triple bonuses” are very exciting… But remember, we had ~ 70 ml shares long at the level ~1.38-1.43…. Though, a half of them could be left still, assuming rational behavior, and a stable number of (small) shorters ….
So, do not take losses voluntarily…. The pbob for a “second dip” is very low.