Yoakie postte dit op een ander draadje. Kent iemand dit? Is dit het laatste advies van DB?
DB advies:Recent datapoints suggest increasing price pressure for map data and navigation applications. We also note Apple's mobile iPhoto launch, suggesting the company is moving towards free pen/crowdsourced map content rather than licensing from Google, TomTom or Navteq going forward. We detail current developments and newsflow below and reiterate our cautious view on the value and growth prospects of TomTom's map assets (~9% of revenues and ~20-25% of EBIT in FY11).
Pricing pressure increases
In their 2011 annual report Nokia reported that they see pricing pressure in their Navteq maps licensing business increasing. The company stated a highly price competitive environment largely due to competition from Google and expects price pressure from its handset, app developer, carrier, PND and Auto customers to further intensify.
Free turn-by-turn navigation app for iPhone
While Android and Nokia smartphones already offer free turn-by-turn, iPhone users so far had to purchase a ~E50 application from the likes of TomTom. This has now changed as web navigation provider Telenav has launched a free web-based navigation app for Apple's iOS and Android. The app is capable of voice turn-byturn navigation and is HTML 5 based, hence allowing developers to easily integrate it in their own apps.
Apple moving to free open maps:
We have also written about the potential for TomTom to strike a licensing agreement with Apple which is aiming to move away from licensing Google maps. We now see this as increasingly unlikely as Apple uses its own map tiles based on free OpenStreetMap data for its latest iPhone/iPad iPhoto release.
PND declines accelerating, strategic value of map decreasing:
We retain our negative view on TomTom's PND business (~50% of revenues) as free smartphone navigation capabilities rapidly improve, offering on par performance with PNDs. We furthermore remain cautious on the long-term prospects of TomTom's licensing/maps business given increasing price pressure and reduced scope for striking a licensing agreement with Apple, in our view. We reiterate Sell and E2.10 price target, valuing TomTom on ~6-7x FY12/13e EPS to reflect continued earnings declines. We support our analysis by a reverse DCF which shows that the market currently prices in 2-3% terminal FCF growth for TomTom vs. a -25% 2009-12e CAGR