Gentlepeople; after this phase with the current crazy rates, on the other side of the coming storm, I believe that we'll have a super-cycle that MIGHT (or might not be) something that we've never seen in shipping before (NB! there is ONE extreme scenario that might destroy or delay this, I'll leave it at the very end). A bull-market that might both have higher sustained rates than before (demand and supply folks) and that might be longer than before (we will have some ships being ordered going forward, but I don't think we'll see the big waves coming until there is clarifications about IMO2030 - and then the first wave will come after 18-24 months, which might not be large enough to match the actual demand)
PS. I currently have no exit strategy. I will delever some through dividends (and probably sell some stocks if the prices go very high in phase 1), but I'm in this one for phase 3. One of the few times in history one can be a long-time investor in tankers (if you can handle the volatility that will come)
NB! Please do NOT invest in ONE tanker company, do a basket approach (unless you know more than me) - especially if you own NAT.
PS: Jo(h)n, if you're reading this; There is one possible bear-scenario here: a deep and long DEpression. If the oil consumption droppes MORE than those 15+ ladies, then we could see a prolongued bear-marked. However, the Great REcession is only a blip. Maybe you could look into how much oil consumption could drop if the world enters a new depression? (and how many tankers we need to get rid of to compensate?)