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Al Kipone 4 mei 2020 21:41

An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.

Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, referenced the updated projections on CNN earlier today, but said he couldn’t provide the specific number.

“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.”
He said multiple variables impact infections – like heat, testing capacity and population density – but “the most important one is mobility.”

Right now, he said, “we’re seeing an increase in mobility that’s leading to an increase in mortality unfortunately in the United States.”

The IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be holding a press briefing at 4 p.m. ET today with additional details.

luchtschip 4 mei 2020 21:41

voor alle forumleden op dit draadje die menen voor de Republikeinse idealen te staan en daarom Trump door dik en dun steunen.

er zijn binnen de republikeinse partij nog twee prominente stromingen

1 the Republicans for the Rule of Law
2 the Lincoln Project

Beiden steunen Trump niet

Hier een laatste video ad van the Lincoln project

Mourning In America

video 1:00 minuut
twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/125...

Al Kipone 4 mei 2020 22:25

White House officials have been relying on other models to make decisions on reopening, including the IHME model and a “cubic model” prepared by the Council of Economic Advisers, led by Trump adviser Kevin Hassett.

People with knowledge of the “cubic model” say it currently shows deaths dropping precipitously in May — and essentially going to zero by May 15.

...

A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day.

The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14, according to a copy shared with The Washington Post. The forecast stops at June 1, but shows both daily cases and deaths on an upward trajectory at that point.

The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quickly disavowed the report, though the slides carry the CDC’s logo. The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress.

The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.

Oh.

www.washingtonpost.com/health/governm...

asti 4 mei 2020 22:46

quote:
Al Kipone schreef op 4 mei 2020 22:25:
White House officials have been relying on other models to make decisions on reopening, including the IHME model and a “cubic model” prepared by the Council of Economic Advisers, led by Trump adviser Kevin Hassett.

People with knowledge of the “cubic model” say it currently shows deaths dropping precipitously in May — and essentially going to zero by May 15.

...

A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day.

The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14, according to a copy shared with The Washington Post. The forecast stops at June 1, but shows both daily cases and deaths on an upward trajectory at that point.

The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quickly disavowed the report, though the slides carry the CDC’s logo. The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress.

The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model.

Oh.

www.washingtonpost.com/health/governm...

Was regelmatig je handen, niet aan je gezicht zitten en blijf afgezien van je huisgenoten zo mogelijk uit mensen hun buurt. Veel meer kun je niet doen. Wees niet bang.

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 03:44

Andy Slavitt tweet over de leugens en de gevolgen

twitter.com/aslavitt/status/125747746...

JP Samosa 5 mei 2020 07:52

Kipone,
Waarom begin je geen Trump-roddelblad?
( zorg wel voor goeie advocaten....)

asti 5 mei 2020 11:52

Je doet een begrijpelijke suggestie, JP. Als iemand zo geniet van het zijn van dramaqueen, waarom zou hij niet proberen om er iets aan te verdienen? Heel begrijpelijk is jouw suggestie. Het hart zit bij jou op de juiste plek. Maar toch denk ik dat het beter is die jongen aan te moedigen om een andere richting op te gaan.

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 14:25

presidentiele roddel en achterklap:

Donald J. Trump
?
Verified account

@realDonaldTrump
May 4
More
“Concast” should open up a long overdue Florida Cold Case against Psycho Joe Scarborough. I know him and Crazy Mika well, used them beautifully in the last Election, dumped them nicely, and will state on the record that he is “nuts”. Besides, bad ratings! #OPENJOECOLDCASE

....

MSNBC host Joe Scarborough told Donald Trump to “take a rest” and suggested that Mike Pence handle the nation’s coronavirus response after the president fired off an ”extraordinarily cruel” message invoking the false idea that the presenter and former congressman should be investigated for murder.

The “cold case” to which Mr Trump refers is the death of 28-year-old Lori Klausutis, a former intern of Mr Scarborough’s who was found dead in his district office while he was still serving as a congressman in 2001. Her death was not ruled suspicious; she sustained a fatal head injury when she fell thanks to a heart episode.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/amer...

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 14:31

Presidentieel twitter commentaar op een video van "the Lincoln Prooject' (zie hierboven, een luchtschip post)

A group of RINO Republicans who failed badly 12 years ago, then again 8 years ago, and then got BADLY beaten by me, a political first timer, 4 years ago, have copied (no imagination) the concept of an ad from Ronald Reagan, “Morning in America”, doing everything possible to....

(commentaar: het is 'Mourning in America" klein detail :-) )

...get even for all of their many failures. You see, these loser types don’t care about 252 new Federal Judges, 2 great Supreme Court Justices, a rebuilt military, a protected 2nd Amendment, biggest EVER Tax & Regulation cuts, and much more. I didn’t use any of them....
....because they don’t know how to win, and their so-called Lincoln Project is a disgrace to Honest Abe. I don’t know what Kellyanne did to her deranged loser of a husband, Moonface, but it must have been really bad. John Weaver lost big for Kasich (to me). Crazed Rick Wilson....
....lost for Evan “McMuffin” McMullin (to me). Steve Schmidt & Reed Galvin lost for John McCain, Romney’s campaign manager (?) lost big to “O”, & Jennifer Horn got thrown out of the New Hampshire Republican Party. They’re all LOSERS, but Abe Lincoln, Republican, is all smiles!

(verder commentaar lijkt me overbodig)

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 15:49

quote:
Al Kipone schreef op 5 mei 2020 14:31:
Presidentieel twitter commentaar op een video van "the Lincoln Prooject' (zie hierboven, een luchtschip post)

A group of RINO Republicans who failed badly 12 years ago, then again 8 years ago, and then got BADLY beaten by me, a political first timer, 4 years ago, have copied (no imagination) the concept of an ad from Ronald Reagan, “Morning in America”, doing everything possible to....

(commentaar: het is 'Mourning in America" klein detail :-) )

...get even for all of their many failures. You see, these loser types don’t care about 252 new Federal Judges, 2 great Supreme Court Justices, a rebuilt military, a protected 2nd Amendment, biggest EVER Tax & Regulation cuts, and much more. I didn’t use any of them....
....because they don’t know how to win, and their so-called Lincoln Project is a disgrace to Honest Abe. I don’t know what Kellyanne did to her deranged loser of a husband, Moonface, but it must have been really bad. John Weaver lost big for Kasich (to me). Crazed Rick Wilson....
....lost for Evan “McMuffin” McMullin (to me). Steve Schmidt & Reed Galvin lost for John McCain, Romney’s campaign manager (?) lost big to “O”, & Jennifer Horn got thrown out of the New Hampshire Republican Party. They’re all LOSERS, but Abe Lincoln, Republican, is all smiles!

(verder commentaar lijkt me overbodig)

Rectificatie: de president was correct, ik niet, de Reagan spot was getiteld: Morning in America.

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 16:18

Senate hearing, Rattcliffe nominatie voor DNI.

Mark Warner (D-VA):
"I don't see what has changed since last summer when POTUS decided not to proceed with your nomination over concerns about your inexperience, partisanship & past statements that seemed to embellish your record."

:-)

Wat achtergrond:

I am pleased to announce that highly respected Congressman John Ratcliffe of Texas will be nominated by me to be the Director of National Intelligence. A former U.S. Attorney, John will lead and inspire greatness for the Country he loves. Dan Coats, the current Director, will....
....be leaving office on August 15th. I would like to thank Dan for his great service to our Country. The Acting Director will be named shortly.

@realDonaldTrump
28 Jul 2019

Even later (2 Augustus 2019):
Our great Republican Congressman John Ratcliffe is being treated very unfairly by the LameStream Media. Rather than going through months of slander and libel, I explained to John how miserable it would be for him and his family to deal with these people....
....John has therefore decided to stay in Congress where he has done such an outstanding job representing the people of Texas, and our Country. I will be announcing my nomination for DNI shortly.
........

8 Aug 2019

I am pleased to inform you that the Honorable Joseph Maguire, current Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, will be named Acting Director of National Intelligence, effective August 15th. Admiral Maguire has a long and distinguished....
....career in the military, retiring from the U.S. Navy in 2010. He commanded at every level, including the Naval Special Warfare Command. He has also served as a National Security Fellow at Harvard University. I have no doubt he will do a great job!

.......

En dan...

In February 2020 Trump rebuked Maguire when he heard that one of Maguire's subordinates, an expert on election security, had briefed members of House Intelligence Committee on Russian preference involvement in the 2020 election. Members of the committee were told Russia appeared to prefer Trump over Democratic candidates and could seek to act on that preference as they had done in 2016 election to boost his candidacy. Trump then announced he would be replacing Maguire,] who resigned on February 21, 2020, and was immediately replaced with Richard Grenell as acting chief.[15] Reactions of concern were published quickly by former military and intelligence professionals such as William McRaven

(wikipedia)

trump tweet Feb 19 2020:
I am pleased to announce that our highly respected Ambassador to Germany, @RichardGrenell, will become the Acting Director of National Intelligence. Rick has represented our Country exceedingly well and I look forward to working with him. I would like to thank Joe Maguire....
....for the wonderful job he has done, and we look forward to working with him closely, perhaps in another capacity within the Administration!

En op 28 Feb 2020:

@realDonaldTrump

I am pleased to announce the nomination of @RepRatcliffe (Congressman John Ratcliffe) to be Director of National Intelligence (DNI). Would have completed process earlier, but John wanted to wait until after IG Report was finished. John is an outstanding man of great talent!

En dus op 5 mei:

.@MarkWarner opens Ratcliffe's DNI confirmation hearing with this: "I don't see what has changed since last summer when POTUS decided not to proceed with your nomination over concerns about your inexperience, partisanship & past statements that seemed to embellish your record."

Only the best people :-)

alexnr75 5 mei 2020 16:30

Er doen er hier een aantal wel erg hun best om een medaille te verdienen :)

Alles voor de clicks!!

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 17:35

Polls:

Nate Silver, 538.com

Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. It’s also not an easy day to characterize given the large number of polls published. You could cherry-pick and point to the poll that has Trump up 7 percentage points in North Carolina, for example, or the ABC News/Washington Post national tracking poll that has Trump up 1 point overall.

[verwijderd] 5 mei 2020 18:32

Politiek spel belangrijker dan Coronavirus bestrijden ? www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/coronavirus-n... .

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 18:47

quote:
Al Kipone schreef op 5 mei 2020 17:35:
Polls:

Nate Silver, 538.com

Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. It’s also not an easy day to characterize given the large number of polls published. You could cherry-pick and point to the poll that has Trump up 7 percentage points in North Carolina, for example, or the ABC News/Washington Post national tracking poll that has Trump up 1 point overall.

dat was in 2016.

Nu:

According to Civiqs’ first poll of North Carolina this cycle, big things are afoot in North Carolina, with Democrats poised for wins in the presidential, Senate, and governor contests, and with voters soured on both of their existing Republican senators (including Richard Burr, who has ghoulishly traded on his insider information to profit during the pandemic).

Top lines? Job Biden defeats Donald Trump 49-46. Democrat Cal Cunningham defeats incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis by a whopping 50-41 margin, and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper wins reelection easily, 53-44. Unless Republicans stage an epic turnaround in the next five months (which could very well happen!), the state will deal serious blows to both Trump and McConnell this November.

Hetzelfde beeld doemt op in AZ, PA, MI, WI, en zelfs in FL en OH....
En dat doet trump geheel op eigen kracht!

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 20:25

Meanwhile:

Coronavirus Live Updates: As Threat of Virus Persists, Trump Administration Signals It Will Wind Down Task Force

Cases are growing by 2 to 4 percent daily, and more than 1,000 people have died each day for over a month. At least 15 children in New York were hospitalized with an illness scientists worry might be linked to Covid-19.

RIGHT NOW Trump administration officials are telling members of the coronavirus task force that the White House plans to wind down the operation and it’s not clear whether any other group might replace it.

www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/coronav...

[verwijderd] 5 mei 2020 22:48

Verkiezingen gaan niet door in november.

www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/606

Al Kipone 5 mei 2020 23:01

quote:
deflationist schreef op 5 mei 2020 22:48:
Verkiezingen gaan niet door in november.

www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/606

Under the 20th Amendment, “the terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January.” The plain meaning is that after the expiration of a four-year term, a president who has not been re-elected has to leave office.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20...

Under a law dating back to 1845, the US presidential election is slated for the Tuesday after the first Monday of November every four years - 3 November in 2020. It would take an act of Congress - approved by majorities in the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives and the Republican-controlled Senate - to change that.

The prospect of a bipartisan legislative consensus signing off on any delay is unlikely in the extreme.

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-5232...

If the coronavirus is still a factor in the fall, Trump could claim emergency powers to keep people in cities where outbreaks have been worse from going to polling places in person, in the name of public health, Hasen said. That could depress turnout in the heavily populated urban areas that tend to vote Democratic.

Biden, Trump’s presumptive challenger this fall, also mentioned Trump’s moves to put conditions on a loan for the U.S. Postal Service, which is struggling amid the coronavirus crisis. Biden claimed Trump was trying to make it harder for people to vote by mail, which he has attacked before. “That’s the only way he thinks he can possibly win,” Biden said.

Election officials in both parties, as well as many Democrats, are trying to expand vote-by-mail in response to growing concerns that voters won’t be comfortable going to polling places this fall because of the coronavirus. Many Republicans, including Trump, have rejected these efforts.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/...

constitutioncenter.org/blog/does-the-...

[verwijderd] 5 mei 2020 23:11

Is corona een legitieme reden volgens de grondwet om geen verkiezingen te houden?

In dat geval moet Trump aftreden per 20 januari?

[verwijderd] 5 mei 2020 23:40

quote:
deflationist schreef op 5 mei 2020 23:11:
Is corona een legitieme reden volgens de grondwet om geen verkiezingen te houden?

In dat geval moet Trump aftreden per 20 januari?

De Constitutie is volledig duidelijk ; de verkiezingen worden gehouden, tenzij het Congres de Wet aanpast. Voor die aanpassing is er ook een meerderheid nodig in het Huis van Afgevaardigden. De democraten hebben daar de meerderheid aan zetels, en willen de wet niet aanpassen om de verkiezingen uit te stellen.

Om Corona-problemen te vermijden, willen de democraten dat er ook via mail-in gestemd kan worden.
Zo blijft de gezondheid van de Amerikaanse burgers beschermd.

Op dit moment wordt de mail-in optie geblokkeerd door Donald Trump en zijn republikeinen.

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