China’s home sales growth continues to slow in October 2018 - Report
South China Morning Post reported that sales of new homes, measured by area, continued to decline. It fell 1.3 per cent in October from a year earlier, a bigger contraction than the 0.8 per cent seen in September, according to the Post’s calculation based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Measured by value, it rose 9.9 per cent last month from a year earlier. Although home prices in 70 major Chinese cities for October will be released on Thursday, calculations comparing total national home sales value with area showed average home prices fell to 8,535 yuan per square metre in October, from 8,751 yuan in September.
New construction starts, a leading indicator of real estate investment, slumped to a one-year low of 14.7 per cent. It had peaked at 29.4 per cent in July.
Analysts said that the softening data is in line with expectations that the growth rate will slow. Yan Yuejin, an analyst with E-House China R&D Institute, said that “The so called ‘golden September, silver October’ did not materialise. Going forward it may not be surprising to see more price cuts by developers to accelerate cash recovery.”
Real estate investment accounts for about one fifth of China’s fixed asset investment. The sector’s sentiment, which contributes to a third of the overall economy, has cooled considerably since August after the Communist Party’s Politburo, China’s top governing body, said it would not allow home price to rise, a shift from its previous stance of curbing “excessive growth”.
However, the measures have continued to pile on since, including stringent requirements on the use of provident fund to buy homes in the biggest cities, dampening developers’ hopes for policy easing in the face of a cooling market.
Chen Shen, chief property analyst with China Securities Co, said that “Our survey showed that the sales condition in second and third tier cities is deteriorating and price cuts have appeared in some cities. A new consensus is emerging that there will be a big correction.”
According to S&P Global Ratings’ forecasts, China’s residential property prices have peaked and could fall by up to 5 per cent in 2019. This will cause residential contracted sales value to decline by between 8 to 12 per cent in 2019, but only 3 to 7 per cent lower in terms of volume, it added.
Source : South China Morning Post